Staying or leaving: Unraveling the dynamics of evacuation decisions among floodplain residents in central Vietnam

Abstract

Households often refuse to evacuate until floodwaters surpass their coping thresholds. Grasping the root causes of this behavior is crucial for implementing effective interventions amid escalating flood risks. While existing literature offers insights into evacuation decisions for various hazards, it overlooks key motivations and barriers specific to flood evacuation in rural Vietnam. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by investigating the factors influencing rural households' evacuation decisions in response to the significant 2020 floods in Central Vietnam. Data for analysis were gathered through in-person interviews with 407 households across Phong Dien, Quang Dien, and Huong Tra districts of Thua Thien Hue Province. The logistic regression model results disproved the influence of variables associated with sociodemographic characteristics, hazard proximity, and flood risk experience. The findings, meanwhile, underscore the impact of those related to threat appraisal, coping appraisal, trust in external support, and perceived evacuation barriers. Proper assessment of flood threats has emerged as a critical factor in promoting evacuation, whereas overconfidence in one's coping capacity and the overestimation of external support adversely affect evacuation decisions. Concerns about potential property loss further hinder evacuation motivation. The proposed interventions encompass prioritizing educational campaigns to clarify flood risk dynamics, categorizing household structure resilience against floods, highlighting challenges associated with self-evacuation, mitigating reliance on external support, enhancing living conditions in evacuation sites, and implementing security measures during flood seasons.