Are hurricane-driven forest management decisions coupled with rising urbanization affecting the forest carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico? A case study from Perdido watershed in the Panhandle Florida

Abstract

Understanding the impacts of hurricane-driven forest management and urbanization on forest carbon is vital for balancing climate mitigation and sustainable land use. It is especially true as these factors significantly influence carbon storage, emissions, and forest resilience, shaping global carbon budgets and informing adaptive strategies and policies. Since 2001, urbanization in the Gulf of Mexico has risen annually by 2.55 %, alongside increasing hurricane frequency. This study examines how urban growth and landowner responses to frequent hurricanes affect carbon dynamics in Florida's Perdido watershed, using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model for land use projection and the InVEST model for carbon quantification. Nine scenarios combining low (LUR), current (CUR), and high (HUR) urbanization rates with 0 %, 25 %, and 50 % increases in hurricane frequency (HF) were analyzed. By 2050, urban land ranged from 5.28 % to 6.12 %, while forestland spanned 40.3 %–47.6 %. Forest conservation increased by 3.1 % (LUR+HF50 %) and 3.7 % (HUR+HF50 %) compared to HF25 % scenarios. Carbon storage varied from 466.5 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF25 %) to 1,055.1 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF50 %) and from 1,213.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF25 %) to 1,572.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF50 %), reflecting higher carbon sequestration with greater conservation efforts. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to mitigate natural hazards, promote resilience, and support sustainable land use planning.