Greenhouse Gas Budgets of Central and West Asia (2000–2020): A Significant Net Source to the Atmosphere

Abstract

This study provides the first comprehensive quantification of three major greenhouse gases (GHGs, including CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) budgets for Central and West Asia (CWA) from 2000 to 2020, including contributions from fossil fuels, industry, and managed and unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems. We use bottom-up (BU: inventories and process-based models) and top-down approaches (TD: atmospheric inversions) to elucidate CWA's GHG budget and its changes. BU and TD budgets consistently show that CWA was a significant and growing GHG source during the 2010s: average net emissions were 4,175 (range: 4,055–4,301) Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹ based on BU and using global warming potentials over a 100-year period (GWP100), and slightly higher net emissions of 4,293 (3,760–4,826) Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹ based on TD. BU estimates show that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and fugitive releases were the dominant source, accounting for 61% of the total budget in the 2010s, with 2,554 (2,526–2,582) Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹. Terrestrial natural ecosystems were a weak CO₂ sink and sources of CH₄ and N₂O, which together resulted in a decadal mean net GHG emission of 220.5 (114.5–332.8) Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹. Non-CO₂ gases, primarily CH₄, contributed significantly to the region's GHG emissions, accounting for 32% (BU) and 24% (TD) of CWA's total GHG budget under GWP100, and increasing to 57% (BU) and 49% (TD) with GWP20, highlighting CH₄ stronger warming impact over shorter timescales. Overall, CWA contributed about 8% of global net GHG emissions in the 2010s, with about 10% of global CO₂, 7% of CH₄, and 3% of N₂O.