Towards sustainable future: Assessing the impact of coal phase-down on the sustainable development goals in China

Abstract

Coal phase-down (CPD) is critical for climate mitigation and impacts resource use and environmental emissions, key to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As the world's largest coal consumer and producer, China's decarbonization significantly influences global energy transitions and SDG fulfillment. This study employs an integrated assessment model to evaluate the impacts of CPD on energy systems, resource use, environmental quality, and SDG progress. The analysis is conducted under five scenarios: BAU (Business-As-Usual), Cost-CPD (cost-driven), Tech-CPD (technology-driven), CoalGrowth (coal expansion), and two temperature control pathways (1.5 °C and 2 °C). Our analysis shows that CPD scenarios lead to a more favorable transition in the energy system, enhanced mitigation of environmental emissions, and improved resource efficiency. Results show considerable variation across SDG scores. Notably, SDG7 achieves the most significant improvement, whereas SDG2, SDG6, and SDG15 show limited or even regressive progress. CPD pathways foster synergies among SDG targets, particularly SDG7 and SDG13, with both Tech-CPD and Cost-CPD contributing by improving energy efficiency, and reducing emissions, thereby driving progress on both SDG7 and SDG13.These findings provide valuable insights for shaping CPD policies and promoting sustainable development.