Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post-Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea

Abstract

The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation with SST over the East Central Pacific Ocean (ECPO). This relationship appears to develop in March and peaks during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Conversely, PDI of TCs over the Bay of Bengal has a significant negative association with SST over the Niño region. Regression analysis and numerical simulations reveal that heating over ECPO produces anomalous walker circulation, leading to favorable conditions for TC genesis and intensification over AS. This study has implication for forecasting TC activity and understanding how SST variability affects TCs over NIO in a changing climate.