Construction and Verification of a Frailty Risk Prediction Model for Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease Based on a Machine Learning Algorithm.

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based predictive model for assessing frailty risk among elderly patients with coronary heart disease (CHD).

Methods: From November 2020 to May 2023, a cohort of 1170 elderly patients diagnosed with CHD were enrolled from the Department of Cardiology of a tier-3 hospital in Anhui Province, China. Participants were randomly divided into a development group and a validation group, each containing 585 patients in a 1:1 ratio. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed in the development group to identify key variables influencing frailty among patients with CHD. These variables informed the creation of a machine learning prediction model, with the most accurate model selected. Predictive accuracy was subsequently evaluated in the validation group through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results: LASSO regression identified the activities of daily living (ADL) score, hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), depression, cardiac function classification, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, solitary living, and age as significant predictors of frailty among elderly patients with CHD in the development group. These variables were incorporated into a logistic regression model and four machine learning models: extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost). AdaBoost demonstrated the highest accuracy in the development group, achieving an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.803 in the validation group, indicating strong predictive capability.

Conclusions: By leveraging key frailty determinants in elderly patients with CHD, the AdaBoost machine learning model developed in this study has shown robust predictive performance through validated indicators and offers a reliable tool for assessing frailty risk in this patient population.