Bus user itinerary choice: Can crowding information help shift riders?

Abstract

This study addresses the challenges posed by the unbalanced distribution of ridership on public transit, which often leads to issues such as bus overcrowding and bunching. We investigated the influence of crowding information on public transit users’ decisions to switch to less crowded itineraries. By conducting a Discrete Choice Experiment, we gathered data from transit users to estimate a mixed logit model, analyzing how various factors impact itinerary choice behavior. The results indicate that bus crowding information, alongside context information, service details of the itinerary, and incentives significantly affect users’ choices. Specifically, crowding information has a notable statistical impact on the decision-making process, depending on the proposed itinerary mode. For example, when the proposed mode is a bus, respondents show a preference for itineraries with more available seats (odds ratio = 1.058 per seat). Conversely, in scenarios involving a shared taxi, respondents are less inclined to switch if traveling with co-riders (odds ratio = 0.693). The study also quantifies the trade-offs among crowding information, service information, and incentives. Our findings provide insights that can assist public transit operators in managing demand more effectively, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs.