Comparative assessment of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic for power generation and green hydrogen potential in West Africa: A case study on Nigeria

Abstract

The transition towards sustainable energy, championed by the Nigerian Electricity Act (2023) underscores the importance of solar energy and green hydrogen in tackling energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Nigeria. However, uncertainty remains among investors and government entities regarding the optimal geographic, technical, and economic conditions for utility-scale renewable electricity projects. To address this, an evaluation of two solar technologies—Photovoltaic (PV) and Parabolic Trough CSP technology (PT-CSP)—was conducted under specific geographical and techno-economic criteria to support solar electricity and green hydrogen development across Nigeria. The study estimated Nigeria's energy demand and employed site evaluation, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, alongside the NREL System Advisory Model (NREL-SAM) for power plant analysis. Results indicate that 105.63 GW_e of grid capacity is required to meet Nigeria's energy demand, whereas 57.32 GW_e from grid-connected solar plants needed to replace unsustainable grid supplying 54.3 % of estimated population. Lagos requires the highest capacity (4.93 GW_e), followed by Rivers, Kano, Oyo, and Ogun. Land suitability assessment identified 0.79 % (6815.68 km²) of Nigeria as highly suitable for solar-hydrogen projects, while 18.49 % (158,450.45 km²) is less suitable with most of Nigeria moderately suitable. Regions are ranked with the North-Central and North-East identified as most viable for PV and PT-CSP projects. A comparative economic analysis shows PV is superior in Nigeria, generating twice the energy output and costing six times less per unit of electricity than PT-CSP. These findings offer guidance for optimal solar energy and green hydrogen deployment.