Research on leakage control of river oil and gas pipelines based on accident situation evolution model

Abstract

Leaks in oil and gas pipelines that flow through rivers can not only cause fire and explosion accidents, resulting in casualties and property losses but also may have irreversible negative impacts on the river environment. Therefore, from the perspective of accident prevention and control, it is very important to research the evolution and assessment of river pipeline leakage risk. Based on the typical leakage accident cases of river oil and gas pipelines, this paper uses the disaster chain to construct a loop-free network diagram to identify various risks and their evolution trends in oil spill accidents. Then, the combinatorial number-ordered weighting operator is introduced to quantify the subjective scores of the experts, the coupling interaction matrix is established, and the critical risks are identified through the interaction matrix, which measures the likelihood and severity of the node events in the risk transfer process and the importance of each path. Finally, the critical path of risk evolution is derived by Dijkstra's algorithm, and the expression for the maximum likelihood of the risk transfer path is designed to quantitatively describe the accident types with the highest degree of importance and their risk evolution paths. In this paper, taking the actual situation of an inland river as an example, the accident types with the highest risk values after the leakage are calculated to be pool fire and explosion, and the risk evolution paths of pool fire and explosion are quantitatively described, which provide theoretical references for the development of subsequent accident control and intervention measures.