International trade barriers, export and industrial resilience: An empirical study based on the EU and USA antidumping and countervailing policies on photovoltaic products

Abstract

The increasing trade barriers imposed by the EU and the USA on China have created a challenging environment for the growth of Chinese emerging and high-tech industries. This paper, which is based on new trade theory with substitutes, examines how antidumping and countervailing policies (ACPs) from the EU and the USA impact Chinese photovoltaic exports and firm numbers. Using product-level trade data, business registration data, and patent application data, a staggered DID model is employed to assess the effects on exports, firm entry, and innovation. The results show that ACPs resulted in a significant decrease in short-term Chinese PV exports of approximately 87.5% and a reduction in the number of new entrants of approximately 10.7%. However, in the long term, both exports and firm entry exhibited a “V-shaped” rebound, with firm entry rebounding faster and more significantly. Further analysis revealed that ACPs led to a rapid increase in domestic photovoltaic capacity and a sustained rise in patent applications, highlighting the effectiveness of expanding the domestic market and focusing on technological innovation to counter international trade barriers.