Assessment of the effects of wind loading due to climate change on the reliability of steel pitched-roof portal frames

IF 6.6 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Thin-Walled Structures Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-04 DOI:10.1016/j.tws.2025.113141

Milena Janković, Filip Ljubinković, Helena Gervásio, Luís Simões da Silva

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the reliability of steel structures considering the effects of climate change on wind loading. This assessment is based on 3 climate-change scenarios for the reference wind speed for a specific region in Portugal. The reliability analysis for typical steel pitched-roof portal frames is carried out using the Monte Carlo method, considering simultaneously loading and resistance as random. A design point search method, coupled with an Importance Sampling formulation for multiple load combinations is proposed and implemented, and compared with crude Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that the proposed method can provide accurate results at a fraction of the number of simulations that are required using the crude Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the increased probability of failure for the load combinations where the wind is the leading action is quantified for the assumed climate change scenarios.

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气候变化引起的风荷载对钢斜顶门式刚架可靠性影响的评估

本文研究了考虑气候变化对风荷载影响的钢结构的可靠度。这一评估是基于葡萄牙某一特定地区参考风速的3种气候变化情景。采用蒙特卡罗方法对典型钢斜顶门式刚架进行了可靠度分析，同时考虑了随机荷载和随机阻力。提出并实现了一种设计点搜索方法，并结合重要抽样公式对多负荷组合进行了设计点搜索，并与原始蒙特卡罗模拟进行了比较。结果表明，所提出的方法可以提供精确的结果，只需使用原始蒙特卡罗模拟所需模拟次数的一小部分。最后，在假定的气候变化情景下，对风为主导作用的荷载组合的失效概率增加进行了量化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Thin-Walled Structures 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

9.60

自引率

20.30%

发文量

801

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Thin-walled structures comprises an important and growing proportion of engineering construction with areas of application becoming increasingly diverse, ranging from aircraft, bridges, ships and oil rigs to storage vessels, industrial buildings and warehouses. Many factors, including cost and weight economy, new materials and processes and the growth of powerful methods of analysis have contributed to this growth, and led to the need for a journal which concentrates specifically on structures in which problems arise due to the thinness of the walls. This field includes cold– formed sections, plate and shell structures, reinforced plastics structures and aluminium structures, and is of importance in many branches of engineering. The primary criterion for consideration of papers in Thin–Walled Structures is that they must be concerned with thin–walled structures or the basic problems inherent in thin–walled structures. Provided this criterion is satisfied no restriction is placed on the type of construction, material or field of application. Papers on theory, experiment, design, etc., are published and it is expected that many papers will contain aspects of all three.