Impact of environmental contamination on Lassa fever transmission dynamics: a mathematical modelling approach

Abstract

This study examines how environmental pollution influences the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission through a mathematical modelling framework. A novel SEQIR-SEI-C model was developed to incorporate human and rodent populations and environmental contamination as key transmission factors. The model was analysed to understand the influence of key parameters of the model, such as quarantine rates, rodent demographics, and contamination clearance, on the dynamics of disease spread. The study highlights the importance of controlling environmental contamination and quarantining infected individuals to mitigate Lassa fever outbreaks. Numerical simulations reveal that reducing transmission rates from contaminated surfaces and enhancing environmental clearance can significantly lower infection rates. The findings underscore the importance of hygiene practices, rodent population control, and effective quarantine strategies in reducing the endemicity of the disease. This research provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers to design targeted interventions to manage Lassa fever outbreaks.