Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban land use structure efficiency: Evidence from 282 cities in China

Abstract

Utilizing statistical data from the period 2012 to 2021, this study assesses the land use structure efficiency (ULUSE) across 282 prefecture-level cities in China. Moreover, a spatial Durbin model (SDM) is employed to analyze the determinants influencing this efficiency. The findings reveal an improvement in the structural efficiency of land use in these cities over the research period, accompanied by distinct spatial characteristics and regional variances. Specifically, the areas displaying higher efficiency predominantly include the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, as well as Beijing, Tianjin, northern Hunan, southern Hubei, eastern Shandong, and the border region between Anhui and Henan. Spatial correlation analyses show that ULUSE is consistently highest in the eastern region and fastest growing in the central region, while the northeastern region as well as the western region show a slow growth or even a declining trend in ULUSE. The regression results show that ULUSE has a significant positive spatial spillover effect across China, which is more pronounced in the eastern and western regions than in the central and northeastern regions. Regarding the impact of various factors, urban economic growth directly enhances ULUSE but paradoxically provides a negative spatial spillover effect. Urbanization rate and government fiscal pressure have direct negative and positive spatial spillover effects on ULUSE, respectively. Additionally, urban economic growth potential has a straightforward positive impact, whereas industrial structure upgrading will, to a certain extent, reduce the level of local ULUSE. Furthermore, rapid urban expansion greatly contributes to the improvement of ULUSE in neighboring areas. Given the evident disparities in the impacts of various factors on ULUSE across different regions, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of regional needs and conditions. This evaluation should be followed by the implementation of region-specific strategies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of urban land use structures. Consequently, this approach will enable the optimization of land use effectiveness in a comprehensive and sustainable manner.