Investing in U.S. forests to mitigate climate change

IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Carbon Balance and Management Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1186/s13021-025-00292-6
Alice Favero, Justin Baker, Brent Sohngen, Adam Daigneault, Christopher Wade, Sara Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth
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Abstract

In recent years several U.S. federal policies have been adopted to support forest-based climate mitigation actions. This study focuses on current federal funds allocated to forest for climate change mitigation activities to assess how much they could deliver in terms of net sequestration under a best-case (optimized) scenario where the cheapest abatement options are implemented first and if these funds are in line to achieve domestic targets for 2030 and 2050. Multiple investments pathways are tested under two different assumptions on CO2 fertilization to provide a range of future mitigation projections from forests. Results show that under annual investments in line with current federal funds (around $640 million), the expected net carbon flux of U.S. forests is around 745 MtCO2/yr in 2030 (+ 12% increase from baseline) and if the investments expand after 2030 the net flux is expected to be 786 MtCO2/yr in 2050 (+ 17% increase from baseline). When CO2 fertilization is accounted for, the projections of net forest carbon sequestration increase by 17% in 2030 and about 1 GtCO2 net sequestration achieved under federal funds in 2050, increasing the likelihood of meeting both short-term and long-term domestic targets.

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投资美国森林以减缓气候变化
近年来,美国联邦政府采取了多项政策来支持以森林为基础的气候减缓行动。本研究重点关注目前分配给森林用于减缓气候变化活动的联邦资金,以评估在最佳情况(优化)下,即首先实施最便宜的减排方案,以及如果这些资金符合实现 2030 年和 2050 年国内目标的要求,这些资金可以提供多少净固存。在两种不同的二氧化碳施肥假设下,对多种投资途径进行了测试,以提供一系列未来森林减排预测。结果表明,根据目前的联邦资金(约 6.4 亿美元)进行年度投资,预计 2030 年美国森林的净碳通量约为 7.45 亿吨二氧化碳/年(比基线增加 12%),如果 2030 年后扩大投资,预计 2050 年的净碳通量为 7.86 亿吨二氧化碳/年(比基线增加 17%)。如果将二氧化碳施肥考虑在内,预计 2030 年的森林碳净螯合量将增加 17%,2050 年联邦基金将实现约 1 GtCO2 的净螯合量,从而增加实现短期和长期国内目标的可能性。
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来源期刊
Carbon Balance and Management
Carbon Balance and Management Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
17
审稿时长
14 weeks
期刊介绍: Carbon Balance and Management is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that encompasses all aspects of research aimed at developing a comprehensive policy relevant to the understanding of the global carbon cycle. The global carbon cycle involves important couplings between climate, atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial and oceanic biospheres. The current transformation of the carbon cycle due to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is widely recognized as potentially dangerous for the biosphere and for the well-being of humankind, and therefore monitoring, understanding and predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the context of the whole biosphere (both terrestrial and marine) is a challenge to the scientific community. This demands interdisciplinary research and new approaches for studying geographical and temporal distributions of carbon pools and fluxes, control and feedback mechanisms of the carbon-climate system, points of intervention and windows of opportunity for managing the carbon-climate-human system. Carbon Balance and Management is a medium for researchers in the field to convey the results of their research across disciplinary boundaries. Through this dissemination of research, the journal aims to support the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and to provide governmental and non-governmental organizations with instantaneous access to continually emerging knowledge, including paradigm shifts and consensual views.
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