The protective effects of two varicella vaccination strategies: A Bayesian modeling study in two megacities in South China.

IF 5.5 3区医学 Q1 IMMUNOLOGY Expert Review of Vaccines Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI:10.1080/14760584.2025.2476524

Xing Huang, Jialing Li, Yihan Li, Weilin Zeng, Qi Zhu, Jun Liu, Pei Hu, Zhihua Zhu, Zhongyi Fan, Ying Yang, Siqing Zeng, Zhihao Li, Jianpeng Xiao, Limei Sun, Jianfeng He

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Abstract

Background: China implemented diverse varicella vaccination strategies from 2012 to 2022, with unclear protective effects. The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two varicella vaccination (VarV) (the two-dose self-paid VarV and the two-dose free VarV) strategies implemented in Guangdong Province, China.

Research design and methods: We collected data on varicella cases and doses administered to children aged 0-14 in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan from 2012 to 2022. Using Bayesian Structured Time Series (BSTS) model, we estimated the effects of the two VarV strategies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen starting from 2018, by referencing Foshan.

Results: Post-implementation of the two-dose self-paid VarV strategy 36,749 (95% CI: 29070, 44428) and 24,179 (95% CI: 16400, 31958) varicella cases were averted in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with a protection rate of 41.8% (95% CI: 36.3%, 46.5%) and 38.9% (95% CI: 30.2%, 45.7%), respectively. After the adoption of the two-dose free VarV strategy, a substantial relative protection rate of 64.2% (95% CI: 58.0%, 68.7%) in varicella cases was observed in Shenzhen, with 38,828 (95% CI: 29979, 47677) cases averted by 2022.

Conclusions: The two-dose VarV strategies have proven highly effective in reducing varicella incidence. The experience in Shenzhen underscores the benefits of a two-dose free VarV strategy.

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Vaccines 医学-免疫学

CiteScore

9.10

自引率

3.20%

发文量

136

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Expert Review of Vaccines (ISSN 1476-0584) provides expert commentary on the development, application, and clinical effectiveness of new vaccines. Coverage includes vaccine technology, vaccine adjuvants, prophylactic vaccines, therapeutic vaccines, AIDS vaccines and vaccines for defence against bioterrorism. All articles are subject to rigorous peer-review. The vaccine field has been transformed by recent technological advances, but there remain many challenges in the delivery of cost-effective, safe vaccines. Expert Review of Vaccines facilitates decision making to drive forward this exciting field.