Association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 and its components and mumps incidence in Lanzhou, China

Abstract

To date, a limited number of studies have assessed the impact of individual and combined PM_2.5 components on mumps incidence. Between 2013 and 2019, we collected data on 6270 mumps cases in Lanzhou, along with corresponding PM_2.5 and its components, to analyze their temporal and spatial distributions. A generalized additive mixed model was constructed to examine the association between PM_2.5 components and mumps incidence. Additionally, Bayesian kernel machine regression was used to evaluate the combined and interactive effects of co-exposure to PM_2.5 components on mumps incidence and to identify key contributing components. A significant linear correlation was found between PM_2.5 and mumps incidence at lag 1 month, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.85 (95 % CI: 1.14, 3.02) for each unit increase in PM_2.5 (log-transformed PM_2.5 concentration). Organic matter (OM) at lag 0 and 1 month, as well as black carbon (BC) at lag 1 month, were significantly positively correlated with mumps incidence. Furthermore, the joint exposure-effect curve for PM_2.5 components and mumps incidence displayed an approximate V-shape. The effects of PM_2.5 and its components on mumps incidence were more pronounced during the warm season. These findings suggest a significant association between short-term exposure to PM_2.5 and its components and mumps incidence in Lanzhou, with potential variations in effect depending on the specific components of PM_2.5.