Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization

IF 8.4 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0

Yanan Duan, Sanjiv Kumar, Montasir Maruf, Thomas M. Kavoo, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jadwiga H. Richter, Anne A. Glanville, Teagan King, Musa Esit, Brett Raczka, Kevin Raeder

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Abstract

We assess the relative contributions of land, atmosphere, and oceanic initializations to the forecast skill of root zone soil moisture (SM) utilizing the Community Earth System Model version 2 Sub to Seasonal climate forecast experiments (CESM2-S2S). Using eight sensitivity experiments, we disentangle the individual impacts of these three components and their interactions on the forecast skill for the contiguous United States. The CESM2-S2S experiment, in which land states are initialized while atmosphere and ocean remain in their climatological states, contributes 91 ± 3% of the total sub-seasonal forecast skill across varying soil moisture conditions during summer and winter. Most SM predictability stems from the soil moisture memory effect. Additionally, land-atmosphere coupling contributes 50% of the land-driven soil moisture predictability. A comparative analysis of the CESM2-S2S SM forecast skills against two other climate models highlights the potential for enhancing soil moisture forecast accuracy by improving the representation of soil moisture-precipitation feedback.

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通过土地初始化加强分季节土壤水分预报

利用群落地球系统模式2分季节气候预报试验（CESM2-S2S），评估了陆地、大气和海洋初始化对根区土壤湿度预报能力的相对贡献。通过八个敏感性实验，我们解开了这三个组成部分的个体影响及其相互作用对美国邻近地区的预测技能。在CESM2-S2S试验中，陆地状态初始化，而大气和海洋保持其气候状态，在夏冬不同土壤湿度条件下贡献了91±3%的总分季节预报技能。大多数SM可预测性源于土壤水分记忆效应。此外，陆地-大气耦合对陆地驱动的土壤湿度可预测性贡献了50%。CESM2-S2S模式与其他两种气候模式的预报能力对比分析表明，通过改善土壤水分-降水反馈的表征，可以提高土壤湿度预报的准确性。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.