An integrated modelling framework to address the energy trilemma in Egypt and Nile East Basin

Abstract

Studying the Energy Trilemma in the context of the global energy transition is crucial today because the world is undergoing a rapid shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This transformation aims to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change, but it also presents significant challenges in balancing energy security, equity, and environmental sustainability. Addressing the trilemma is crucial because Energy Security, Energy Equity (Affordability and Access) and Environmental sustainability can sometimes conflict with each other. This study employs an integrated soft-linking framework, combining an Energy system optimization model (ESOM), Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), and Input-Output Analysis (IOA), to address the energy trilemma in Egypt as a paradigmatic country in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The application of the Integrated framework combined with four specific scenarios of Analysis Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Generation Target of 42 % by 2035 (REN42), High Economic Growth (HEG), and Industrial Energy Efficiency (IEE) allows to draw insights for economic and technological pathways of the energy transition in Egypt. From the three-faceted perspective of the trilemma, the results confirm the need for diversification from a natural gas-dominated system to a more balanced energy mix of renewable and conventional sources to enhance energy security and reduce fossil fuel import dependency. The demand simulation reveals that total energy demand will increase due to the economic growth in the country, at least doubling in the most conservative scenario. The role of efficiency in this regard has proved to be crucial, resulting in an annual energy savings of 13 %, that can mitigate the effect of the subsidies that have discouraged such measures in the past and contribute to household affordability and equity. Finally, as far as environmental sustainability is concerned, the results indicate that achieving the REN42 target and avoiding 10 % of accumulated total emissions in the power sector would only increase the total system cost by 2 % compared to the BAU scenario. Trades with Sudan and Ethiopia also play a key role for Egypt, as they can reduce system costs by 1–5%, increase the renewable share to 50–60 % by 2050, and accommodate excess capacity.