Study on optimization and risk resilience of integrated energy system in near-zero carbon park considering carbon taxes

Abstract

Carbon emissions from industrial parks are the main carbon source and battlefield for carbon mitigation, accounting for 1/4 of global carbon emissions in 2022. In order to realize the low-carbon and sustainable development as well as promote the near-zero carbon transition of industrial parks, two low-carbon energy transition roadmaps based on natural gas for short-term and electricity for long-term are developed to analyze their comprehensive benefits as well as risk resilience in the context of carbon tax. Consequently two low-carbon transition energy systems are built and optimized for a light industrial park in China, and comparison analysis is conducted for the future scenarios with carbon tax in short- and long-term. The results show that energy systems based on natural gas and electricity can significantly enhance energy utilization efficiency and effectively reduce carbon emissions, achieving reductions of 60.1 % and 70.9 %, respectively. The natural gas-based energy system demonstrates better short-term economic performance with a payback period of 3.69 years, but has limited resilience to carbon tax risks. The electricity-based energy system performs better in the long term, with a payback period of up to 4.79 years, and offers greater adaptability to carbon tax policies. This study can provide an effective way and decision support for the park to realize near-zero carbon transition.