China's provincial renewable energy electricity consumption allocations for 2030: A study using the zero-sum gains data envelope analysis model

Abstract

Ensuring grid stability and meeting emissions reduction goals hinge on the effective allocation of renewable energy electricity consumption. Guided by principles of fairness, efficiency, feasibility, and sustainability, this study crafted a holistic indicator system and employed the Zero-Sum Gains Data Envelope Analysis (ZSG-DEA) model to analyze China's provincial renewable electricity consumption allocations for 2030. The findings indicate that the initial renewable electricity allocation efficiency is already optimal in nine provinces, but falls below 0.5 in Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. However, after three iterations of the ZSG-DEA model, all regions attain optimal efficiency. Eastern coastal regions lead in renewable electricity consumption, exceeding 100 billion kWh, while certain provinces consume less than 70 billion kWh of non-hydroelectricity due to area size. Compared to the initial allocation, there is an observed increase in consumption of non-hydroelectricity in the eastern coastal regions. Conversely, iterative adjustments have led to a notable decrease of up to 40 % in the non-hydroelectricity allocated to regions with favorable wind and solar power generation conditions. It is recommended that regions with rapid economic growth and high electricity demand in China's east should be given priority for renewable electricity allocation. Additionally, it is suggested to improve the excess consumption trading market and the green certificate trading market to provide supplementary means to achieve renewable electricity consumption targets and optimize renewable electricity allocation efficiency.