Neural signatures of temporal anticipation in human cortex represent event probability density

Abstract

Temporal prediction is a fundamental function of neural systems. Recent results show that humans anticipate future events by calculating probability density functions, rather than hazard rates. However, direct neural evidence for this hypothesized mechanism is lacking. We recorded neural activity using magnetoencephalography as participants anticipated auditory and visual events distributed in time. We show that temporal anticipation, measured as reaction times, approximates the event probability density function, but not hazard rate. Temporal anticipation manifests as spatiotemporally patterned activity in three anatomically and functionally distinct parieto-temporal and sensorimotor cortical areas. Each of these areas revealed a marked neural signature of anticipation: Prior to sensory cues, activity in a specific frequency range of neural oscillations, spanning alpha and beta ranges, encodes the event probability density function. These neural signals predicted reaction times to imminent sensory cues. These results demonstrate that supra-modal representations of probability density across cortex underlie the anticipation of future events.