Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the need for bailout procedure in laparoscopic cholecystectomy: A multicenter study of 1,898 cases

Abstract

Background

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is the standard treatment for benign gallbladder disease. A bailout procedure is recommended for patients with severe inflammation. This study identified the preoperative factors that predict bailout procedures and developed a predictive nomogram.

Methods

A total of 1,898 patients with laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 5 institutions (2015–2020) were divided into training (n = 1,518) and validation (n = 380) sets. Logistic regression was employed to predict bailout procedures and to develop a nomogram on the basis of the training set. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the validation set. Postoperative outcomes were compared between qualified surgeons certified by the Japanese Society for Endoscopic Surgery and residents who had graduated from a medical university within the past 5 years.

Results

Bailout procedures were performed in 262 (13.8%) patients. Multivariate analysis identified several significant predictors, including sex, age, gallbladder drainage, severity of acute cholecystitis, stone impaction of the gallbladder neck, and serum C-reactive protein. The nomogram achieved an area under the curve of 0.788 in the training set and 0.769 in the validation set. Intraoperative complications were significantly fewer in the qualified surgeon group than in the nonqualified surgeon group.

Conclusion

The nomogram aids surgeons in identifying high-risk patients and making informed decisions about bailout procedures, thereby ensuring patient safety. Involving qualified surgeons in case predicted to be difficult cholecystectomies may help prevent help to avoid intraoperative complications.