Spatial structure, distribution, and fractal analysis of lightning waiting times in three global hotspots

Abstract

Statistical analysis of inter-event times has been employed to gain information about drivers and classification of events such as neuron spikes and earthquake events. This study extends the concept of inter-event statistics to the space time analysis of lightning events across three global hotspot. Using WWLLN Global Lightning Climatology data spanning 11 years (2010 - 2021), lightning waiting time was evaluated using burstiness, probability distribution, and fractal analysis. Results obtained in this study showed that lightning events at hot spot regions are driven by Poisson processes while the surrounding regions with low lightning activities are bursty in nature. Attempts were made to fit lightning event times to three probability distribution functions - Lognormal, Gamma, and Normal distribution. Both Lognormal and Gamma distributions were found to be good fit for lightning waiting times, while the Normal distribution showed poor performance. Complex analysis of lightning waiting times were also considered using entropy and fractal analysis. Persistence was observed in lightning waiting times across the three hotspot regions considered.