The contribution of source parameter estimations and ground motion simulations in integrating input data for seismic hazard assessment: an application to the volcanic island of Ischia (Italy)

Abstract

On 21 August 2017, a M_w 3.9 earthquake struck the island of Ischia, causing two casualties and significant damage in the village of Casamicciola Terme and its surroundings. The earthquake was recorded by the local INGV-OV seismic network, and represents the first relevant instrumentally recorded earthquake on the island. However, it is not possible to perform a statistical analysis based on past recordings, which forms the basis of the Ground Motion Model at a local scale. The numerical simulations can help overcome this problem. Here, we first analysed the low magnitude seismicity of the island and focused on estimating the seismic attenuation and average static stress drop through spectral inversion analysis. We then used a stochastic finite-fault approach considering two source models to simulate the Casamicciola earthquake’s strong ground motion by also taking into account the site effect at the IOCA station. The numerical simulations were also extended to the localities for which observed macroseismic intensity values are available. The simulated peak ground motions, converted into intensities through empirical relationships, are somewhat higher than the observed values for both source configurations, suggesting that the regional dependence between intensity and peak ground motion cannot be overlooked. Future investigations should be undertaken to improve seismic hazard assessment at a local scale. Conversely, synthetic PGAs and PGVs show a satisfactory match with the values predicted by the generic GMM calibrated for volcanic areas in Italy. The results underscore the importance of region-specific GMMs for reliable seismic scenarios.