The Effect of Natural Disasters on Inbound Tourism: Synthetic Control Evidence From Italy

Abstract

This study enhances the expanding but still limited body of evidence concerning the influence of natural hazards on tourism. We augment prior scholarly investigations by scrutinizing the repercussions of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake on incoming tourism, thereby addressing an existing void in the literature regarding the ramifications of extreme events on high-income nations such as Italy. Moreover, our contribution is novel in its application of the quasi-experimental Synthetic Control Method within the realm of tourism research. Our findings underscore the enduringly deleterious consequences of the L'Aquila hazard on tourism, persisting over a protracted temporal horizon. In particular, the analysis shows a drop in overnight stays with a pronounced effect on hotel accommodations.