Wind Speed Weibull Model Identification in Oman, and Computed Normalized Annual Energy Production (NAEP) From Wind Turbines Based on Data From Weather Stations

Abstract

Using observation records of wind speeds from weather stations in the Sultanate of Oman between 2000 and 2023, we compute estimators of the two Weibull distribution parameters (namely, the Weibull distribution's shape parameter and the Weibull distribution's scale parameter) in 10 weather station locations within eight Omani governorates. The 10 weather station locations in Oman and their corresponding governorates are Seeb (in Muscat), Salalah (in Dhofar), Buraimi (in Al Buraimi), Masirah (in Ash Sharqiyah South), Thumrait (in Dhofar), Sur (in Ash Sharqiyah South), Khasab (in Musandam), Sohar (in Sohar), Fahud (in Az Zahirah), and Saiq (in Ad Dakhiliyah). The obtained wind speed distributions at these weather stations are then used to predict the annual energy production (AEP) for a proposed reference amount of 1 MWp of wind turbine capacity, and this specific AEP is designated here by the term “normalized annual energy production (NAEP).” The direction of the wind is also analyzed statistically over the same period to identify the more probable wind directions. Four locations were clearly distinguishable as being windy compared to the others. The simulated probability of exceeding a feasible 6 m/s (21.6 km/h) wind speed in these locations is 41.71% in Thumrait, 37.77% in Masirah, 29.53% in Sur, and 17.03% in Fahud. The NAEP values in these four locations are estimated as 1.727 GWh/MWp/year, 1.419 GWh/MWp/year, 1.038 GWh/MWp/year, and 0.602 GWh/MWp/year; respectively. The wind in the location of Thumrait is not only the fastest (on average) among the selected locations, but also the most unidirectional, blowing almost always from the south–south-east (SSE) direction; and both features make this non-coastal location in southern Oman, with an altitude of about 467 m, an attractive site for utility-scale wind farms. We also statistically analyze wind data in the port city of Duqm; and we show that the simulated probability of exceeding 6 m/s wind speed there is 24.04%, the estimated NAEP there is 0.927 GWh/MWp/year, and the wind direction there is approximately blowing from the south–south-west (SSW) direction most of the time. When compared to photovoltaic (PV) solar energy systems, onshore wind turbine systems with the same installed capacity appear to be less effective in Oman. This study closes a gap in the field of wind energy where no similar standardized NAEP as the one we propose is present.