Global, regional, and national burdens of hip fractures in elderly individuals from 1990 to 2021 and predictions up to 2050: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Purpose

We aimed to analyse the global, regional, and national burdens of hip fractures in older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050, on the basis of data from the GBD 2021 study.

Methods

We employed a joinpoint model to analyse trends in the burden of hip fractures from 1990‒2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify temporal trends over this period. We evaluated the relationship between the social development index and the burden of hip fracture in elderly people and conducted a health inequality analysis. Additionally, we applied Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast burden trends of hip fractures up to 2050.

Results

The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for hip fractures in older adults rose from 781.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 948.81 in 2021. The 2021 age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 1,894.07, and the age-standardized YLD rate (ASDR) was 173.52. From 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence increased by 168.71 % and 173.07 %, respectively, while the burden of DALYs decreased. Future trends were projected via the LSTM. The burden and risk factors for hip fractures varied significantly by sex, country, and region. Population and aging are primary contributors to the rising incidence of elderly hip fractures, with falls being the leading direct cause.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of hip fractures in the elderly population, especially among older women, steadily increased. Population ageing highlights the urgent need for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation, including early diagnosis, effective prevention strategies, and region-specific management approaches.