Test-retest reliability of decisions under risk with outcome evaluation: evidence from behavioral and event-related potentials (ERPs) measures in 2 monetary gambling tasks.

Abstract

The balance between potential gains and losses under risk, the stability of risk propensity, the associated reward processing, and the prediction of subsequent risk behaviors over time have become increasingly important topics in recent years. In this study, we asked participants to carry out 2 risk tasks with outcome evaluation-the monetary gambling task and mixed lottery task twice, with simultaneous recording of behavioral and electroencephalography data. Regarding risk behavior, we observed both individual-specific risk attitudes and outcome-contingent risky inclination following a loss outcome, which remained stable across sessions. In terms of event-related potential (ERP) results, low outcomes, compared to high outcomes, induced a larger feedback-related negativity, which was modulated by the magnitude of the outcome. Similarly, high outcomes evoked a larger deflection of the P300 compared to low outcomes, with P300 amplitude also being sensitive to outcome magnitude. Intraclass correlation coefficient analyses indicated that both the feedback-related negativity and P300 exhibited modest to good test-retest reliability across both tasks. Regarding choice prediction, we found that neural responses-especially those following a loss outcome-predicted subsequent risk-taking behavior at the single-trial level for both tasks. Therefore, this study extends our understanding of the reliability of risky preferences in gain-loss trade-offs.