Machine learning prediction model for functional prognosis of acute ischemic stroke based on MRI radiomics of white matter hyperintensities.

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of the current study is to explore the value of a nomogram that integrates clinical factors and MRI white matter hyperintensities (WMH) radiomics features in predicting the prognosis at 90 days for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods: A total of 202 inpatients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke from the Department of Neurology, Xuzhou Central Hospital between September 2023 and March 2024 were retrospectively enrolled. Inpatient clinical data and cranial MRI images were acquired. In this study, the sample was randomly divided into a training cohort comprising 141 cases and a validation cohort of 61 cases in a 7:3 ratio. WMH lesions on fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences were automatically segmented and manually adjusted using Matlab and ITK-SNAP software. The segmentation led to the identification of total white matter hyperintensity (TWMH), periventricular white matter hyperintensity (PWMH), and deep white matter hyperintensity (DWMH). Subsequently, radiomics features were meticulously extracted from these three distinct regions of interest (ROIs). Radiomic models for the three ROIs were developed using six machine learning algorithms. The clinical model was built by identifying clinical risk factors through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A combined model was subsequently developed incorporating the best radiomics model with significant clinical factors. To illustrate these risk factors, a graphical representation known as a nomogram was devised.

Results: Age, previous stroke history, coronary artery disease, admission blood glucose levels, homocysteine levels, and infarct volume were identified as independent clinical predictors of AIS prognosis. A total of 16, 21, and 22 radiomics features were selected from TWMH, PWMH, and DWMH, respectively. The TWMH radiomics model using the SVM classifier exhibited the best predictive performance for AIS prognosis, achieving a sensitivity of 90.0%, a specificity of 81.3%, an accuracy of 85.3%, and an AUC of 0.916 in the validation set. The combined model outperformed both the clinical and radiomics models, exhibiting exceptional predictive capabilities with a validation cohort sensitivity of 89.3%, specificity of 84.8%, accuracy of 86.9%, and AUC of 0.939.

Conclusion: The FLAIR sequence-based WMH radiomics approach demonstrates effective prediction of the 90-day functional prognosis in patients with AIS. The integration of TWMH radiomics and clinical factors in a combined model exhibits superior performance. This innovative model shows potential in aiding clinicians to enhance their assessment of patient prognosis and tailor personalized treatment strategies.

Clinical trial number: Not applicable.