Multi-Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI:10.1029/2024GL112474

P. Nabat, S. Somot, J. Boé, L. Corre, E. Katragkou, S. Li, M. Mallet, E. van Meijgaard, V. Pavlidis, J.-P. Pietikäinen, S. Sørland, F. Solmon

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Abstract

Global and regional climate models (respectively GCMs and RCMs) are delivering conflicting messages about summertime climate change in Europe, revealing notably a weaker warming in RCMs. A dedicated multimodel ensemble of nine GCM-RCM pairs is analyzed to assess the role of anthropogenic aerosols in these inconsistencies. The expected decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is found both to modify the future evolution of shortwave radiation and to generate an extra warming. For every tenth in aerosol optical depth drop in Central Europe, shortwave radiation is increased at the surface by 6.3 $W m^{- 2}$ and decreased at the top of the atmosphere by 5.6 $W m^{- 2}$ , while near-surface temperature is increased by 0.3 $°$ C. The consideration of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in RCMs thus contributes to improving GCM/RCM consistency in Europe for these three variables, but not for water cycle. The results obtained underline the necessity to better consider aerosols in upcoming regional climate simulations.

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欧洲夏季气候变化中人为气溶胶作用的多模式评估

全球和区域气候模式（分别为gcm和rcm）提供了关于欧洲夏季气候变化的相互矛盾的信息，明显显示rcm变暖较弱。分析了9对GCM-RCM的专用多模式集合，以评估人为气溶胶在这些不一致性中的作用。发现预期的人为气溶胶浓度的减少既会改变短波辐射的未来演变，又会产生额外的变暖。中欧气溶胶光学深度每下降十分之一，地表短波辐射增加6.3 W²m−2$\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$，大气顶部短波辐射减少5.6 W²m−2$\mathrm{W}{\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$，而近地表温度增加0.3°${}^{\circ}$C。因此，考虑RCM中随时间变化的人为气溶胶有助于提高这三个变量在欧洲的GCM/RCM的一致性，但不利于水循环。所获得的结果强调了在未来的区域气候模拟中更好地考虑气溶胶的必要性。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.