Climate change increases public health risks from Tityus scorpion stings in Brazil.

Abstract

Urban environments provide Tityus scorpions with abundant prey and shelter, leading to increased human-scorpion encounters and associated public health risks. In this study, we model the distribution of seven medically relevant Tityus species and project the potential impacts of climate change on their distribution across Brazil by 2060. We compiled 1103 occurrence records from the GBIF, iNaturalist, SpeciesLink, and SiBBr databases and applied ecological niche modeling using climate projections for 2041-2060 from WorldClim. Model validation yielded high AUC values, demonstrating a strong agreement between observed distributions and model predictions. Future climate scenarios predict a reduction in Tityus serrulatus habitat suitability. Despite this reduction, models indicate an increase in high-suitability areas, suggesting a possible local expansion in optimal habitats. Conversely, T. metuendus, T. obscurus, and T. silvestris are expected to undergo a significant increase in habitat suitability, potentially expanding into previously unsuitable areas due to temperature and precipitation shifts. Tityus stigmurus is also projected to benefit from climate change with an increase in suitable habitats, although its expansion is more restricted compared to the other species. In contrast, T. bahiensis and T. trivittatus are expected to face a reduction in habitat suitability. These findings highlight that climate-driven habitat reduction may concentrate scorpion populations in densely populated areas, exacerbating public health risks. Therefore, targeted governmental interventions are crucial to mitigate the escalating threat posed by Tityus scorpions in urban settings under climate change scenarios.