What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used?

Abstract

There is growing concern among decision makers in a warming world that increasing frequency and severity of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, is making historical information less representative and useful. To aid decision making in a rapidly warming ocean, researchers have developed new forecast tools that can predict marine heatwaves on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. As demand from marine stakeholders increases for actionable information, effective transfer is paramount for uptake and response. Here we consider three aspects critical to aid this information transfer. The model system must be useful – having the appropriate model type, resolution, and domain, with model skill verified against observations. The forecasts must be useable with skill on timescales relevant to decision making, interpretable by end users, and delivered in a practical format. The forecast information must be used, which requires clear communication at appropriate levels, strong user engagement, and consideration of industry agility and incentives. Feedback between these three aspects is needed to ensure continuous improvement in the level of forecast usefulness, useability, and uptake. Forecasts are a critical tool in the management of climate risk and the framework we present here will be important for maintaining profitable and sustainable marine industries into the future.