Analyzing wind and photovoltaic plant development toward the energy transition in Italy

Abstract

European decarbonization strategies to address climate change and reduce dependence from foreign fuels aim at favoring the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Italy has implemented actions to promote RES capacity, mainly solar and wind systems, by defining RES growth targets by 2030 and streamlining authorization process for RES plants. However, since the discussion on 2030 target started, several concerns were raised by different stakeholders, including energy operators, mostly regarding conflicting policies between energy strategies and territorial planning. This paper aims to evaluate how operators are reacting to Italian Government energy strategies, to better understand the evolution of wind and solar energy sectors in Italy in relation to the expected targets and to evaluate the need for new actions toward decarbonization goals. In this study, operators’ response is represented by both RES plants installed in Italy after 2020 and new project proposals currently under authorization process. The analysis shows an increase in RES capacity in Italy from 2020 to 2023, with an increment of 7.3 GW for rooftop, 1.4 GW for ground-mounted photovoltaic plants, and 1.3 GW for wind farms. In the same period, operators submitted 1628 proposals for new utility scale plants, mostly concentrated in southern regions, totaling 77.9 GW. Despite new and proposed plants would guarantee to achieve 2030 national target, this scenario would cause an imbalance at regional level. Southern regions could face overexploitation of land, conflicting with strategies aimed at equitable effort sharing among the regions.