Global uncertainty, macroprudence and export value: "Quality up" or "quantity up"

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of global uncertainty on export value. We extend Melitz's (2003) neo-new trade theory model by introducing global uncertainty into the model to explore how it affects the "quantity" and "quality" of exports value, and then we select a sample of 85 economies for the period 2001–2021. Subsequently, we selected 85 economies as the study sample from 2001 to 2021, and the empirical data also show that: (1) global uncertainty reduces the total export value and increases the export value of high-quality products and services, with a longer duration. Emerging economies are more prominent. (2) the impact of domestic uncertainty has not had a significant impact on the total export value and quality, while the impact of foreign uncertainty is particularly significant.(3) Macroprudential analysis shows that, under the impact of global uncertainty, macroprudential policies have played a countercyclical role, that is, mitigating the negative impact of global uncertainty on the "quantity" of exports value, and reducing the positive impact of global uncertainty on the "quality" of exports. (4) Domestic pull factors indicate that while the level of financial development and government intervention has successfully contributed to "increasing" the value of exports, it has not effectively achieved the goal of "enhancing" the quality of export value.The findings of this paper provide new ideas for countries to promote the "quantity" and "quality" of exports under the external shocks of global uncertainty, and provide micro evidence for countries to promote the implementation of macroprudential policies.