How does climate change affect regional sustainable development? Empirical evidence from 186 countries around the world

Abstract

This study, based on data from 186 countries worldwide between 1980 and 2020, explores the profound impact of climate change on regional sustainable development. It focuses on analyzing the mechanisms of factors such as temperature changes, urban development, green vegetation, energy consumption, and environmental regulation, revealing significant differences in climate adaptation capacities between developed and developing countries. The study finds that moderate warming is beneficial for the sustainable development of cold regions, while high temperatures generally have negative effects across all regions, particularly with more far-reaching impacts in developed countries. Proper urban development and green vegetation management can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of high temperatures, whereas excessive energy consumption exacerbates the negative consequences of climate change. Additionally, socio-economic factors profoundly affect the severity of extreme weather impacts. Low-income and income-inequality countries face greater risks, while in the long term, extreme heat increasingly poses challenges for high-income countries. Climate zone differences exacerbate these impacts, with cold-climate countries experiencing the most severe short-term effects from extreme cold and heat, while in the long term, extreme heat has the greatest impact on tropical countries, and extreme cold continues to affect cold-climate countries, with temperate countries facing moderate effects. Based on the research findings, this paper proposes differentiated climate adaptation strategies and offers policy recommendations in areas such as green infrastructure development, energy transition, environmental regulation, and social security systems to promote the achievement of global climate adaptation and sustainable development goals. It also emphasizes climate justice, ensuring fair participation of vulnerable countries and groups in global climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.