The multi-dimensional assessment and dynamic evolution of the energy trilemma in China

Abstract

Global energy dynamics are currently undergoing a critical transition toward low-carbon systems while maintaining high-quality development standards. However, this transition is hindered by the “energy trilemma,” which illustrates the inherent conflict between energy equity, security, and environmental sustainability. This study investigates the dynamics of this trilemma across spatiotemporal contexts, focusing on China, a country grappling with regional disparities in energy development. Through a multi-dimensional assessment, strategic countermeasures are discussed to mitigate the challenges posed by the energy trilemma. Key findings: (1) China's coordinated energy development remained low (0.4–0.5) from 2001 to 2021, with growth decelerating after surpassing the 0.5 coordination index threshold. (2) Energy equity, leading 57 % of provinces to 83 %, along with a decline in provinces lagging in environmental sustainability from 7 to 2 drove China's transition from nearly disordered to barely coordinated levels. (3) The spatial pattern remained uniform until 2015, with changes in environmental sustainability and security shaping regional characteristics from 2015 to 2021. (4) Under non-spatial conditions, provinces below 0.25 improved to 0.3–0.35 within three years. Static conditions showed positive spillovers, with neighbors above 0.6 reaching 0.55–0.6. In dynamic conditions, regional disparities appeared (5) Projections show strong internal stability by 2025, but the probability of disordered provinces advancing increases from 34.4 % to 61.9 % by 2030, while transition provinces reaching coordinated growth rises from 21.4 % to 39.8 %.