The growing demand for hydrogen: сurrent trends, sectoral analysis, and future projections

Abstract

Hydrogen has emerged as a pivotal energy carrier in the global transition toward sustainable energy systems. This study analyses current trends, sectoral dynamics, and future demand projections for hydrogen, employing a multi-methodological framework that integrates Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) extrapolation, scenario-based modeling, and regional comparative analysis. By leveraging historical growth patterns of geothermal, bioenergy, and wind energy sectors in the European Union (EU), three hydrogen demand scenarios—Conservative (3.25 % CAGR), Moderate (8.33 % CAGR), and Optimistic (15.42 % CAGR)—are projected to 2050. Results indicate that global hydrogen demand could range from 18.8 to 381.3 million tonnes per year by 2050, depending on technological advancements, policy frameworks, and infrastructure investments. The transportation and industrial sectors are identified as critical drivers, while regional disparities highlight leadership from the EU, the U.S., and Asia-Pacific nations. The study underscores the necessity of coordinated policy, cost reduction in green hydrogen production, and infrastructure scalability to realize hydrogen's potential in decarbonizing energy systems.