Probabilistic seismic damage assessment for partition walls based on a multi-spring numerical model incorporating uncertainties

Abstract

To overcome the limitations of fragility analysis in the assessment of partition walls, specifically data shortage, general uncertainties, and subjective criteria, this study proposes a probabilistic method to evaluate seismic damage of partition walls. A proposed multi-spring numerical model balances the damage representation and computational efficiency in simulations, thus avoiding extensive experimental testing. By accounting for parameter uncertainties in individual partition walls, the uncertainties introduced by the fragility group are avoided, and the description of the seismic damage is probabilistic, enhancing the reliability of the assessment results. Using damaged areas as the assessment criterion alleviates epistemic uncertainty exacerbated by subjective judgments on repair actions. Furthermore, it eliminates the assumption of a log-normal distribution for damage in fragility analysis, improving the calculations of damage probabilities and expected repair costs. The results are anticipated to be valuable for assessing the seismic risk and repair costs of partition walls.