African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?

Abstract

The present paper explores the perspectives on the rollout of green hydrogen in Africa from sectoral and macroeconomic viewpoints. It critically reviews the datasets projecting the costs of renewable hydrogen and the current state of the import/export market; besides, based on key scientific publications, trends, and gaps in the green hydrogen economy, fresh insights are detected through integrative review and scientometrics. Microeconomically founded scenario analyses are conducted, focusing on Africa. Hence, the study offers an outlook on the contribution of green hydrogen to African economic development. The inquiry finds that, due to economies of scale, green hydrogen production and exports will likely be concentrated in a few African countries that achieve competitive production costs relatively early. Additionally, cost considerations and the level of the development of democratic institutions will also play a crucial role in establishing renewable hydrogen export hubs in Africa. Assessment of the IEA Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database, updated in October 2023, reveals that Egypt, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa are the leading candidates for hydrogen production and exports from Africa. Consequently, the EU-driven expansion of global green hydrogen production centers in the 2020s and 2030s could result in a shift from petroleum dependence on the Middle East and Russia to hydrogen reliance on just a few African countries by the early 2040s. This deployment could conflict with European interests in fostering energy cooperation with Africa. Without development of comprehensive hydrogen value chains in Africa, green hydrogen sector risksperpetuating extractivism and insecurity, resulting in enclave-style renewable hydrogen industry and a “hydrogen-curse” that exacerbates African maldevelopment.