首页 > 最新文献

Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

英文 中文
Growing pains during scale-up hypergrowth: Integration and future research agenda 规模扩大超速增长过程中的成长之痛:整合与未来研究议程
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123779
The hypergrowth of technological scale-ups is receiving growing research attention from TIM (Technology and Innovation Management) scholars. While much is researched and written about hypergrowth's strategic topics, scaling of technology, and physical assets, less attention is given to the internal challenges faced by rapidly and massively scaling firms. In this paper, we argue that if TIM scholars focusing on product development and new market entrance are to advance knowledge concerned with hypergrowth of scale-ups, they need to join the conversation with the general management scholars who focus on how to manage people in a rapidly developing context. We build our arguments by drawing on Penrose's theory of firm growth, which emphasizes that growth is a function of management capacity and possession of resources, and which suggests that massive scaling in one type of resource will lead to imbalances of other types of resources. We also draw on the cognitive theory of the firm, which suggests that a firm's priorities are the outcome of its top managers' mental models. Consequently, we put forward that technology-based firms, successful in technology scaling, will create issues and challenges on the human side of organizations. These challenges include HR issues, like hiring and turnover, leadership challenges, and organizational culture, which are often the focus of management research. To inspire new research, we review research evidence from technology and management literature integrating available evidence concerned with the “growing pains” of hyperscaling firms. We identify at least three important drivers of hypergrowth in technology scale-ups that affect the firm's internal processes: i) time pressure, ii) constant change, and iii) scarcity of resources. These context drivers put the workforce in a stressful situation due to a) expanding job demands, b) massive hiring, c) changing leadership requirements, and d) evolving organizational culture. We integrate our findings into an organizing framework that dynamically relates hypergrowth to effects in organizations. We conclude this paper with suggestions for how the growing pains can be addressed by future research on hypergrowth firms.
技术与创新管理(TIM)学者对技术规模型企业的超高速增长越来越关注。虽然有关超高速增长的战略主题、技术规模和有形资产的研究和文章很多,但对快速和大规模扩张的公司所面临的内部挑战关注较少。在本文中,我们认为,如果专注于产品开发和新市场进入的技术、管理和创新(TIM)学者要推进有关规模企业超高速增长的知识,他们就需要与专注于如何在快速发展背景下进行人员管理的一般管理学者进行对话。我们借鉴彭罗斯的企业成长理论来构建我们的论点,该理论强调企业成长是管理能力和资源拥有量的函数,并认为一种资源的大规模扩展会导致其他类型资源的失衡。我们还借鉴了企业认知理论,该理论认为企业的优先事项是企业高层管理者心智模式的结果。因此,我们提出,以技术为基础的公司在技术扩展方面取得成功后,将在组织的人力方面带来问题和挑战。这些挑战包括人力资源问题,如招聘和人员流动、领导力挑战和组织文化,而这些往往是管理研究的重点。为了启发新的研究,我们回顾了技术和管理文献中的研究证据,整合了与超大规模企业的 "成长之痛 "有关的现有证据。我们发现,技术型企业的超速增长至少有三个重要驱动因素会影响企业的内部流程:i) 时间压力;ii) 不断变化;iii) 资源稀缺。由于 a) 工作需求不断扩大,b) 大量招聘,c) 领导力要求不断变化,d) 组织文化不断演变,这些背景驱动因素使员工处于紧张状态。我们将研究结果整合到一个组织框架中,该框架动态地将超高速增长与组织中的效应联系起来。在本文的最后,我们就未来对超高速增长企业的研究如何解决成长的烦恼提出了建议。
{"title":"Growing pains during scale-up hypergrowth: Integration and future research agenda","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123779","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The hypergrowth of technological scale-ups is receiving growing research attention from TIM (Technology and Innovation Management) scholars. While much is researched and written about hypergrowth's strategic topics, scaling of technology, and physical assets, less attention is given to the internal challenges faced by rapidly and massively scaling firms. In this paper, we argue that if TIM scholars focusing on product development and new market entrance are to advance knowledge concerned with hypergrowth of scale-ups, they need to join the conversation with the general management scholars who focus on how to manage people in a rapidly developing context. We build our arguments by drawing on Penrose's theory of firm growth, which emphasizes that growth is a function of management capacity and possession of resources, and which suggests that massive scaling in one type of resource will lead to imbalances of other types of resources. We also draw on the cognitive theory of the firm, which suggests that a firm's priorities are the outcome of its top managers' mental models. Consequently, we put forward that technology-based firms, successful in technology scaling, will create issues and challenges on the human side of organizations. These challenges include HR issues, like hiring and turnover, leadership challenges, and organizational culture, which are often the focus of management research. To inspire new research, we review research evidence from technology and management literature integrating available evidence concerned with the “growing pains” of hyperscaling firms. We identify at least three important drivers of hypergrowth in technology scale-ups that affect the firm's internal processes: i) time pressure, ii) constant change, and iii) scarcity of resources. These context drivers put the workforce in a stressful situation due to a) expanding job demands, b) massive hiring, c) changing leadership requirements, and d) evolving organizational culture. We integrate our findings into an organizing framework that dynamically relates hypergrowth to effects in organizations. We conclude this paper with suggestions for how the growing pains can be addressed by future research on hypergrowth firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sectoral innovation policy adopting socio-technical systems (STS) perspectives: The case of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in five leading countries 采用社会技术系统(STS)视角的部门创新政策:五个主要国家的自动驾驶汽车(AV)案例
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123758
The advent of the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” technologies has led to increased use of policy to support innovation in particular sectors of emerging technologies; however, limited academic research has been conducted on such sectoral innovation policy. As greater understanding is required of the socio-technical contexts in which such policies are implemented, this study develops a conceptual framework based on the socio-technical systems (STS) perspective. Together with the concept of innovation policy instrument mixes, the proposed framework allows for more effective design and analysis of sector-specific innovation policy for emerging technologies that have high societal impact. The framework is then used in a comparative case study of the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector across five leading countries through a comprehensive review of policy documents. The case study revealed similarities and differences in AV policy across countries, demonstrating the need for sectoral innovation policy that is more tailored in specific socio-technical contexts. The study also provides practical guidelines for innovation policy to support other emerging high-tech sectors. The increasing complexity of policy mixes results in challenges of policy coordination and evaluation hence, policy patching can be a more realistic and beneficial strategy than policy packaging.
随着所谓的 "第四次工业革命 "技术的出现,越来越多的政策被用于支持新兴技术特定领域的创新;然而,关于此类领域创新政策的学术研究却十分有限。由于需要更多地了解实施此类政策的社会技术背景,本研究基于社会技术系统(STS)视角建立了一个概念框架。结合创新政策工具组合的概念,所提出的框架可以更有效地设计和分析针对具有高度社会影响的新兴技术的特定部门创新政策。然后,通过对政策文件的全面审查,将该框架用于对五个主要国家的自动驾驶汽车(AV)行业进行比较案例研究。该案例研究揭示了各国在自动驾驶汽车政策方面的异同,表明有必要制定更符合特定社会技术背景的部门创新政策。这项研究还为支持其他新兴高科技部门的创新政策提供了实用指南。政策组合日益复杂,给政策协调和评估带来了挑战,因此,政策修补可能是比政策包装更现实、更有益的战略。
{"title":"Sectoral innovation policy adopting socio-technical systems (STS) perspectives: The case of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in five leading countries","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The advent of the so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” technologies has led to increased use of policy to support innovation in particular sectors of emerging technologies; however, limited academic research has been conducted on such sectoral innovation policy. As greater understanding is required of the socio-technical contexts in which such policies are implemented, this study develops a conceptual framework based on the socio-technical systems (STS) perspective. Together with the concept of innovation policy instrument mixes, the proposed framework allows for more effective design and analysis of sector-specific innovation policy for emerging technologies that have high societal impact. The framework is then used in a comparative case study of the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector across five leading countries through a comprehensive review of policy documents. The case study revealed similarities and differences in AV policy across countries, demonstrating the need for sectoral innovation policy that is more tailored in specific socio-technical contexts. The study also provides practical guidelines for innovation policy to support other emerging high-tech sectors. The increasing complexity of policy mixes results in challenges of policy coordination and evaluation hence, policy patching can be a more realistic and beneficial strategy than policy packaging.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is FinTech making world more “inclusive”? Evidence from inclusive growth story of China 金融科技是否让世界更加 "包容"?中国包容性增长故事的证据
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123780
Financial technology (FinTech) functions as a world-recognized vital driver for high-quality development. Different from recent research that merely involves empirical studies of the correlation between FinTech and inclusive growth, we first employ mathematical model analysis to theoretically distinguish the underlying mechanism through which FinTech influences inclusive growth in China. Subsequently, we built a series of mathematical models to deconstruct three effects of FinTech on inclusive growth: entrepreneurship stimulation, human capital investment, and innovation promotion effect, followed by a re-examination of these mechanisms using panel data that covers 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020. The empirical results show a solid positive impact of FinTech on inclusive growth in China. Further mechanism tests confirm that entrepreneurship stimulation, human capital investment, and innovation promotion serve as three plausible economic channels that account for this effect, supporting our theoretical conjecture. Moreover, we adopt machine learning algorithm to simulate different inclusive growth levels in China from 2021 to 2030 under different scenarios and therefore propose policy suggestions to bolster inclusive growth. Overall, these findings shed greater light on the FinTech-inclusive growth nexus and provide new insights into the real effects of FinTech on sustainable development in developing economies that bear resemblance to China.
金融科技(FinTech)是世界公认的推动高质量发展的重要力量。与近年来仅对金融科技与包容性增长的相关性进行实证研究不同,我们首先运用数学模型分析,从理论上区分金融科技影响中国包容性增长的内在机制。随后,我们建立了一系列数学模型,解构了金融科技对包容性增长的三种效应:创业刺激效应、人力资本投资效应和创新促进效应,并利用2011-2020年中国281个地级市的面板数据对这些机制进行了重新检验。实证结果表明,金融科技对中国的包容性增长产生了积极影响。进一步的机制检验证实,创业激励、人力资本投资和创新促进是解释这一效应的三个可信的经济渠道,支持了我们的理论猜想。此外,我们采用机器学习算法模拟了 2021-2030 年不同情景下中国不同的包容性增长水平,从而提出了促进包容性增长的政策建议。总体而言,这些研究结果进一步揭示了金融科技与包容性增长之间的关系,并为了解金融科技对与中国相似的发展中经济体可持续发展的实际影响提供了新的视角。
{"title":"Is FinTech making world more “inclusive”? Evidence from inclusive growth story of China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123780","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123780","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial technology (FinTech) functions as a world-recognized vital driver for high-quality development. Different from recent research that merely involves empirical studies of the correlation between FinTech and inclusive growth, we first employ mathematical model analysis to theoretically distinguish the underlying mechanism through which FinTech influences inclusive growth in China. Subsequently, we built a series of mathematical models to deconstruct three effects of FinTech on inclusive growth: entrepreneurship stimulation, human capital investment, and innovation promotion effect, followed by a re-examination of these mechanisms using panel data that covers 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020. The empirical results show a solid positive impact of FinTech on inclusive growth in China. Further mechanism tests confirm that entrepreneurship stimulation, human capital investment, and innovation promotion serve as three plausible economic channels that account for this effect, supporting our theoretical conjecture. Moreover, we adopt machine learning algorithm to simulate different inclusive growth levels in China from 2021 to 2030 under different scenarios and therefore propose policy suggestions to bolster inclusive growth. Overall, these findings shed greater light on the FinTech-inclusive growth nexus and provide new insights into the real effects of FinTech on sustainable development in developing economies that bear resemblance to China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green innovation in Norwegian firms: Navigating the complexity of productivity and performance 挪威企业的绿色创新:驾驭生产率和绩效的复杂性
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123786
In an era where sustainability demands are increasing, green innovation (GI) is garnering widespread acclaim for its profound social and environmental benefits. This study explores how GI affects productivity and efficiency in Norwegian service and manufacturing firms, using a state-of-the-art stochastic frontier model (semi-parametric smooth coefficient) tailored to analyze firm-specific impacts essential for competitiveness in a green economy. We identify two main pathways through which GI affects productivity: technological heterogeneity and shifts in inefficiency. The impact on technology is split into neutral (direct) and non-neutral (indirect) effects, with the neutral effect being independent of factor inputs, and the non-neutral effect being influenced by both technology heterogeneity and input levels. We evaluate the marginal effects of GI on productivity through technology and inefficiency. Our GI construct includes innovations such as reduced material/energy use, lower CO2 emissions, noise reduction, hazardous material substitution, and adoption of renewable energy. Analyzing data from 3,130 Norwegian firms, our findings highlight the crucial role of GI in sustainability, underscoring its strategic importance across sectors. We find a positive neutral pathway effect but negatively impacts productivity through non-neutral pathways. GI also positively influences inefficiency, particularly in manufacturing.
在可持续发展要求日益提高的时代,绿色创新(GI)因其深远的社会和环境效益而广受赞誉。本研究探讨了绿色创新如何影响挪威服务业和制造业企业的生产率和效率,采用了最先进的随机前沿模型(半参数平稳系数),专门用于分析绿色经济中对企业竞争力至关重要的特定影响。我们确定了 GI 影响生产率的两个主要途径:技术异质性和低效率转变。对技术的影响分为中性(直接)影响和非中性(间接)影响,中性影响与要素投入无关,而非中性影响则受技术异质性和投入水平的影响。我们通过技术和低效率来评估 GI 对生产率的边际效应。我们的地理信息结构包括减少材料/能源使用、降低二氧化碳排放、减少噪音、危险材料替代和采用可再生能源等创新。通过分析来自 3130 家挪威企业的数据,我们的研究结果凸显了地理信息创新在可持续发展中的关键作用,强调了其在各行业中的战略重要性。我们发现了积极的中性路径效应,但通过非中性路径对生产率产生了负面影响。地理信息系统还对低效率产生积极影响,尤其是在制造业。
{"title":"Green innovation in Norwegian firms: Navigating the complexity of productivity and performance","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an era where sustainability demands are increasing, green innovation (GI) is garnering widespread acclaim for its profound social and environmental benefits. This study explores how GI affects productivity and efficiency in Norwegian service and manufacturing firms, using a state-of-the-art stochastic frontier model (semi-parametric smooth coefficient) tailored to analyze firm-specific impacts essential for competitiveness in a green economy. We identify two main pathways through which GI affects productivity: technological heterogeneity and shifts in inefficiency. The impact on technology is split into neutral (direct) and non-neutral (indirect) effects, with the neutral effect being independent of factor inputs, and the non-neutral effect being influenced by both technology heterogeneity and input levels. We evaluate the marginal effects of GI on productivity through technology and inefficiency. Our GI construct includes innovations such as reduced material/energy use, lower CO2 emissions, noise reduction, hazardous material substitution, and adoption of renewable energy. Analyzing data from 3,130 Norwegian firms, our findings highlight the crucial role of GI in sustainability, underscoring its strategic importance across sectors. We find a positive neutral pathway effect but negatively impacts productivity through non-neutral pathways. GI also positively influences inefficiency, particularly in manufacturing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital transformation in healthcare: Assessing the role of digital technologies for managerial support processes 医疗保健领域的数字化转型:评估数字技术在管理支持流程中的作用
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123781
This study used Porter's value chain model within healthcare organizations and the technology–organization–environment framework to explore the impact of digital technologies on managerial and administrative support processes and identify the determinants of their adoption. We used the Delphi methodology to examine six categories of digital technologies (Internet of Things, artificial intelligence & machine learning, big data & business analytics, cloud storage & computing, social media, and blockchain). The study used an inductive qualitative approach involving 11 experts to gather opinions on the most impactful digital technologies and the factors that hinder or limit digital transformation. We found that the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence & machine learning have the most significant impact on administrative support processes in healthcare organizations. Blockchain was least relevant. The experts identified the skills and competencies of employees as the most crucial determinants for ensuring successful digital transformation. These results contribute to the literature on digital transformation in healthcare, which has previously mainly focused on the impact of technologies on clinical processes. The findings may also be useful to both policymakers and practitioners in determining priorities for investment in digital technologies and delivering successful implementation.
本研究采用波特的医疗机构价值链模型和技术-组织-环境框架,探讨数字技术对管理和行政支持流程的影响,并确定采用数字技术的决定因素。我们采用德尔菲法研究了六类数字技术(物联网、人工智能和机器学习、大数据和商业分析、云存储和计算、社交媒体和区块链)。研究采用归纳定性方法,由 11 位专家参与,就最具影响力的数字技术以及阻碍或限制数字化转型的因素收集意见。我们发现,物联网和人工智能及机器学习对医疗机构的行政支持流程影响最大。区块链的相关性最小。专家们认为,员工的技能和能力是确保成功实现数字化转型的最关键决定因素。这些结果为有关医疗保健领域数字化转型的文献做出了贡献,因为以前的文献主要关注技术对临床流程的影响。这些研究结果对政策制定者和从业人员也很有帮助,有助于他们确定数字技术投资的优先次序并成功实施。
{"title":"Digital transformation in healthcare: Assessing the role of digital technologies for managerial support processes","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study used Porter's value chain model within healthcare organizations and the technology–organization–environment framework to explore the impact of digital technologies on managerial and administrative support processes and identify the determinants of their adoption. We used the Delphi methodology to examine six categories of digital technologies (Internet of Things, artificial intelligence &amp; machine learning, big data &amp; business analytics, cloud storage &amp; computing, social media, and blockchain). The study used an inductive qualitative approach involving 11 experts to gather opinions on the most impactful digital technologies and the factors that hinder or limit digital transformation. We found that the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence &amp; machine learning have the most significant impact on administrative support processes in healthcare organizations. Blockchain was least relevant. The experts identified the skills and competencies of employees as the most crucial determinants for ensuring successful digital transformation. These results contribute to the literature on digital transformation in healthcare, which has previously mainly focused on the impact of technologies on clinical processes. The findings may also be useful to both policymakers and practitioners in determining priorities for investment in digital technologies and delivering successful implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risks of policy failure in direct R&D support 直接研发支持政策失败的风险
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123654
In current socio-economic contexts characterised by high levels of uncertainty, the role of R&D policies to foster innovation becomes crucial. However, increased uncertainty exacerbates the risk of policy failure leading to ineffective R&D support. Despite this, R&D policy failure risk is rarely discussed in the literature. While innovation research acknowledges the existence of policy failure risks, their nature and the appropriate ways to address them are not analysed in an integrated manner. Drawing upon risk and risk governance concepts and public policy research, we present a conceptual framework for the analysis of R&D policy failure risks and their governance.
在当前以高度不确定性为特征的社会经济背景下,研发政策在促进创新方面的作用变得至关重要。然而,不确定性的增加加剧了政策失败的风险,导致研发支持效果不佳。尽管如此,文献中却很少讨论研发政策失败的风险。虽然创新研究承认存在政策失效风险,但却没有对其性质和适当的应对方法进行综合分析。借鉴风险和风险治理概念以及公共政策研究,我们提出了一个分析研发政策失败风险及其治理的概念框架。
{"title":"Risks of policy failure in direct R&D support","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In current socio-economic contexts characterised by high levels of uncertainty, the role of R&amp;D policies to foster innovation becomes crucial. However, increased uncertainty exacerbates the risk of policy failure leading to ineffective R&amp;D support. Despite this, R&amp;D policy failure risk is rarely discussed in the literature. While innovation research acknowledges the existence of policy failure risks, their nature and the appropriate ways to address them are not analysed in an integrated manner. Drawing upon risk and risk governance concepts and public policy research, we present a conceptual framework for the analysis of R&amp;D policy failure risks and their governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bringing employee learning to AI stress research: A moderated mediation model 将员工学习引入人工智能压力研究:调节中介模型
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123773
While a substantial portion of the literature characterizes artificial intelligence (AI) stress as a hindrance, our focus diverges by probing employee learning as an active response to this challenge. We highlight the role of employee knowledge and skills development amidst an enterprise's digital transformation. Drawing on the active learning perspective of the Job Demand-Control model, we investigate why and when AI stress promotes employee learning and subsequent adaptive coping behaviors. We propose that AI stress can create opportunities and resources for employee learning, leading to improved job performance and supportive behavior for digital transformation. Additionally, we examine how employee trust in AI moderates these relationships, finding that higher levels of AI trust are associated with greater use of active learning strategies when faced with AI stress. Our findings, based on a two-wave survey of 224 employees from a motor-vehicle testing company in China, are further supported by post-hoc interview data collected from 32 employees of the same company. Overall, our study contributes to the understanding of AI adoption, digital transformation, and stress learning.
大量文献将人工智能(AI)压力描述为一种阻碍,而我们的研究重点则有所不同,我们将员工学习作为应对这一挑战的一种积极措施。我们强调员工知识和技能发展在企业数字化转型中的作用。借鉴 "工作需求-控制 "模型的主动学习视角,我们研究了人工智能压力促进员工学习和后续适应性应对行为的原因和时间。我们提出,人工智能压力可以为员工学习创造机会和资源,从而提高工作绩效并支持数字化转型行为。此外,我们还研究了员工对人工智能的信任如何调节这些关系,发现人工智能信任度越高,员工在面对人工智能压力时使用主动学习策略的比例就越高。我们的研究结果基于对中国一家机动车检测公司 224 名员工进行的两波调查,并得到了同一公司 32 名员工的事后访谈数据的进一步支持。总之,我们的研究有助于理解人工智能的应用、数字化转型和压力学习。
{"title":"Bringing employee learning to AI stress research: A moderated mediation model","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While a substantial portion of the literature characterizes artificial intelligence (AI) stress as a hindrance, our focus diverges by probing employee learning as an active response to this challenge. We highlight the role of employee knowledge and skills development amidst an enterprise's digital transformation. Drawing on the active learning perspective of the Job Demand-Control model, we investigate <em>why</em> and <em>when</em> AI stress promotes employee learning and subsequent adaptive coping behaviors. We propose that AI stress can create opportunities and resources for employee learning, leading to improved job performance and supportive behavior for digital transformation. Additionally, we examine how employee trust in AI moderates these relationships, finding that higher levels of AI trust are associated with greater use of active learning strategies when faced with AI stress. Our findings, based on a two-wave survey of 224 employees from a motor-vehicle testing company in China, are further supported by post-hoc interview data collected from 32 employees of the same company. Overall, our study contributes to the understanding of AI adoption, digital transformation, and stress learning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring resistance barriers in travelers' word of mouth for mobile payment systems: Mediating effects of trust and usage intention 探索旅行者对移动支付系统口碑传播的阻力障碍:信任和使用意向的中介效应
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123771
Emerging technologies, such as mobile payment systems (MPS), continue to affect people from all walks of life, including travelers' behaviors. Following the innovation resistance theory (IRT) framework, the current study examined the link between innovation resistance barriers (i.e., usage, value, risk, tradition, and image) and word of mouth (WOM) for MPS usage in the travel industry. Specifically, we integrated trust theory and examined how these innovation resistance barriers affect trust, which then affects MPS usage intention and subsequently affects WOM for MPS. Following the two-study research design, multi-wave data were collected from 403 participants in Study 1 and 378 participants in Study 2. The results supported the serial mediation of trust and MPS usage intention for the relationships between usage, value, and tradition barriers and WOM for MPS. Our findings contribute to travel and consumer behavior theory and practice by explaining how and why specific innovation barriers negatively influence WOM for MPS usage in the travel industry.
移动支付系统(MPS)等新兴技术不断影响着各行各业的人们,包括旅行者的行为。根据创新阻力理论(IRT)框架,本研究考察了旅游业使用移动支付系统的创新阻力障碍(即使用、价值、风险、传统和形象)与口碑(WOM)之间的联系。具体而言,我们结合信任理论,研究了这些创新阻力障碍如何影响信任,进而影响 MPS 的使用意向,并进而影响 MPS 的 WOM。按照两项研究的设计,研究 1 收集了 403 名参与者的多波数据,研究 2 收集了 378 名参与者的多波数据。研究结果表明,在使用、价值和传统障碍与 MPS 的 WOM 之间的关系中,信任和 MPS 使用意愿起到了串联中介的作用。我们的研究结果解释了特定的创新障碍如何以及为什么会对旅游行业使用 MPS 的 WOM 产生负面影响,从而为旅游和消费者行为理论与实践做出了贡献。
{"title":"Exploring resistance barriers in travelers' word of mouth for mobile payment systems: Mediating effects of trust and usage intention","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emerging technologies, such as mobile payment systems (MPS), continue to affect people from all walks of life, including travelers' behaviors. Following the innovation resistance theory (IRT) framework, the current study examined the link between innovation resistance barriers (i.e., usage, value, risk, tradition, and image) and word of mouth (WOM) for MPS usage in the travel industry. Specifically, we integrated trust theory and examined how these innovation resistance barriers affect trust, which then affects MPS usage intention and subsequently affects WOM for MPS. Following the two-study research design, multi-wave data were collected from 403 participants in Study 1 and 378 participants in Study 2. The results supported the serial mediation of trust and MPS usage intention for the relationships between usage, value, and tradition barriers and WOM for MPS. Our findings contribute to travel and consumer behavior theory and practice by explaining how and why specific innovation barriers negatively influence WOM for MPS usage in the travel industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate risk, digital transformation and corporate green innovation efficiency: Evidence from China 气候风险、数字化转型与企业绿色创新效率:来自中国的证据
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123777
Amid the rapid evolution of economic activities, climate risk has become a significant challenge for China, profoundly influencing corporate investment decisions. This study explores the effects and mechanisms of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency within the Chinese context. The findings reveal that climate risk significantly enhances corporate green innovation efficiency through two stages: green technology R&D and the conversion of green outcomes, facilitated by external supervision and digital transformation mechanisms. Specifically, climate risk increases public awareness and the effectiveness of supervision over corporate environmental performance, while also bolstering the intrinsic motivation for corporate digital transformation, collectively enhancing green innovation efficiency. Furthermore, government green subsidies, market competition intensity, and corporate innovation continuity positively moderate the impact of climate risk on green innovation efficiency. These effects are particularly pronounced in high-tech firms, state-owned enterprises, firms with fewer financing constraints, and those with robust environmental management systems. Ultimately, the positive effect of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency further enhances corporate green total factor productivity. This research provides valuable insights for companies striving to harmonize economic benefits with environmental performance.
在经济活动快速发展的同时,气候风险已成为中国面临的重大挑战,深刻影响着企业的投资决策。本研究在中国背景下探讨了气候风险对企业绿色创新效率的影响和机制。研究结果表明,在外部监督和数字化转型机制的推动下,气候风险通过绿色技术研发和绿色成果转化两个阶段显著提高了企业的绿色创新效率。具体而言,气候风险提高了公众对企业环境绩效的认识和监督的有效性,同时也增强了企业数字化转型的内在动力,共同提高了绿色创新效率。此外,政府的绿色补贴、市场竞争强度和企业创新的持续性也会积极缓和气候风险对绿色创新效率的影响。这些影响在高科技企业、国有企业、融资限制较少的企业以及拥有健全环境管理体系的企业中尤为明显。最终,气候风险对企业绿色创新效率的积极影响进一步提高了企业的绿色全要素生产率。这项研究为努力协调经济效益与环境绩效的企业提供了宝贵的见解。
{"title":"Climate risk, digital transformation and corporate green innovation efficiency: Evidence from China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123777","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid the rapid evolution of economic activities, climate risk has become a significant challenge for China, profoundly influencing corporate investment decisions. This study explores the effects and mechanisms of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency within the Chinese context. The findings reveal that climate risk significantly enhances corporate green innovation efficiency through two stages: green technology R&amp;D and the conversion of green outcomes, facilitated by external supervision and digital transformation mechanisms. Specifically, climate risk increases public awareness and the effectiveness of supervision over corporate environmental performance, while also bolstering the intrinsic motivation for corporate digital transformation, collectively enhancing green innovation efficiency. Furthermore, government green subsidies, market competition intensity, and corporate innovation continuity positively moderate the impact of climate risk on green innovation efficiency. These effects are particularly pronounced in high-tech firms, state-owned enterprises, firms with fewer financing constraints, and those with robust environmental management systems. Ultimately, the positive effect of climate risk on corporate green innovation efficiency further enhances corporate green total factor productivity. This research provides valuable insights for companies striving to harmonize economic benefits with environmental performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares 评估新技术对工资和劳动收入份额的影响
IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123782
This paper advances the literature on the impacts of new technologies on labour markets, focusing on wage and labour income shares. Using a dataset from 32 countries and 38 industries, we analyse the effects of new technologies – proxied by patents, information and communication technology (ICT) capital usage, and robot intensity – on average wages and labour income shares over time. Our results indicate a positive correlation between patents and wage levels along with a minor negative impact on labour income shares, suggesting that technology rents are not fully passed on to labour. Robot intensity is positively associated with labour income shares, while ICT capital has an insignificant effect. These effects persist over time and are reinforced by global value chain (GVC) linkages. Our conclusions align with recent research indicating that new technologies have a generally limited impact on wages and labour income shares.
本文推进了有关新技术对劳动力市场影响的文献,重点关注工资和劳动收入份额。我们利用 32 个国家和 38 个行业的数据集,分析了新技术--以专利、信息与通信技术(ICT)资本使用和机器人密集度为代表--随着时间的推移对平均工资和劳动收入份额的影响。我们的研究结果表明,专利与工资水平之间存在正相关关系,但对劳动收入份额有轻微的负面影响,这表明技术租金并没有完全转嫁给劳动力。机器人密集度与劳动收入份额呈正相关,而信息和通信技术资本的影响并不显著。这些影响随着时间的推移而持续,并因全球价值链(GVC)联系而得到加强。我们的结论与最近的研究一致,即新技术对工资和劳动收入份额的影响普遍有限。
{"title":"Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper advances the literature on the impacts of new technologies on labour markets, focusing on wage and labour income shares. Using a dataset from 32 countries and 38 industries, we analyse the effects of new technologies – proxied by patents, information and communication technology (ICT) capital usage, and robot intensity – on average wages and labour income shares over time. Our results indicate a positive correlation between patents and wage levels along with a minor negative impact on labour income shares, suggesting that technology rents are not fully passed on to labour. Robot intensity is positively associated with labour income shares, while ICT capital has an insignificant effect. These effects persist over time and are reinforced by global value chain (GVC) linkages. Our conclusions align with recent research indicating that new technologies have a generally limited impact on wages and labour income shares.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1