Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

Unveiling the key determinants of cleantech venture capital investment in India: A study using necessary condition and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis 揭示印度清洁技术风险投资的关键决定因素：基于必要条件和模糊集定性比较分析的研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124599

Sheena Rehman

The climate change funding gap underscores the significance of venture capital as a pivotal source to propel the development of cleantech ventures in the fight against global warming. Consequently, comprehending the factors that influence cleantech venture capital investment (CTVCI) is essential for efficiently allocating resources and expediting the shift to a low-carbon economy. This study examines the influence of institutional governance, innovation, economic growth, environmental stringency, energy (oil price), stock market activity and investor sentiment on CTVCI in India from the period of 2002–2022. The Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) have been employed to enhance the complementarity of the findings based on their necessity and sufficiency. Results reveal that oil price, environmental stringency and investor sentiment are necessary and sufficient, with each component making distinct contributions of varied magnitudes to CTVCI. fsQCA identified eleven different configurations leading to high and low CTVCI. This groundbreaking study is the first to reveal the determinants required to achieve desired CTVCI levels. The study offers practical policy implications to various stakeholders on the interdependence and asymmetric causal links among determinants to increase as well as decrease the flow of CTVCI in the country.

气候变化资金缺口凸显了风险资本作为推动清洁技术企业发展、对抗全球变暖的关键来源的重要性。因此，了解影响清洁技术风险投资（CTVCI）的因素对于有效配置资源和加速向低碳经济的转变至关重要。本研究考察了2002-2022年期间印度制度治理、创新、经济增长、环境紧缩、能源（石油价格）、股市活动和投资者情绪对CTVCI的影响。根据研究结果的必要性和充分性，采用必要条件分析（NCA）和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）来增强研究结果的互补性。结果表明，油价、环境严格程度和投资者情绪是必要和充分的，每个成分对CTVCI的贡献程度不同。fsQCA确定了11种不同的配置导致高和低CTVCI。这项开创性的研究首次揭示了达到理想CTVCI水平所需的决定因素。该研究为各利益相关者提供了实际的政策影响，说明了决定因素之间的相互依存和不对称因果关系，以增加和减少该国CTVCI的流动。

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引用次数: 0

Drivers and barriers to the adoption of wind assisted ship propulsion technologies: An organisational perspective 采用风力辅助船舶推进技术的驱动因素和障碍：一个组织的视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124559

Armand Djoumessi , Alessio Tei , Claudio Ferrari , Per Wide , Vendela Santén

The transition to sustainable maritime shipping will necessitate the uptake of various revamped and newly developed technological innovations. Among these, wind assisted ship propulsion technologies (WASPTs) are (r)emerging as a viable option. Understanding the drivers and barriers to their adoption is therefore critical for developing policies and business strategies to harness their potential. A key limitation of the extant literature on these drivers and barriers is their reliance on theoretical perspectives focused on factors external to organisations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the drivers and barriers to the adoption of WASPTs. A qualitative thematic analysis is applied to fourteen semi-structured interviews with senior stakeholders across the maritime sector. Guided by a systems theory lens, the analysis categorises drivers into internal, connecting, and external types, and barriers into behavioural, economic, organisational, and technological categories. The findings highlight that WASPTs adoption is primarily driven by progressive leadership, strategic alignment, and regulatory incentives, but is constrained by high investment costs, a conservative industry culture, and various operational and structural limitations. Based on this a conceptual model that highlights the role of internal organisational dynamics and inter-actor legitimacy pressures is developed. From a business perspective, a technology package approach emerged as a strategic solution for addressing the high cost of investment and payback time and return on investment (ROI) sensitivity barriers. It is also argued that designing policies built around progressive leaders rather targeting the whole industry could be more effective in accelerating WASPTs adoption.

向可持续海运的过渡将需要采用各种改进和新开发的技术创新。其中，风力辅助船舶推进技术（waspt）正在成为一种可行的选择。因此，了解采用它们的驱动因素和障碍对于制定政策和业务战略以利用它们的潜力至关重要。关于这些驱动因素和障碍的现有文献的一个关键限制是它们依赖于关注组织外部因素的理论观点。本文的目的是提供一个更全面的关于采用waspt的驱动因素和障碍的图片。定性专题分析应用于对海事部门高级利益相关者的14次半结构化访谈。在系统理论视角的指导下，该分析将驱动因素分为内部、连接和外部类型，并将障碍分为行为、经济、组织和技术类别。研究结果强调，waspt的采用主要受到进步的领导、战略一致性和监管激励的推动，但受到高投资成本、保守的行业文化以及各种操作和结构限制的制约。在此基础上，开发了一个强调内部组织动力学和行动者间合法性压力作用的概念模型。从业务角度来看，技术包方法作为解决高投资成本和回报时间以及投资回报（ROI）敏感性障碍的战略解决方案而出现。还有人认为，围绕进步的领导者制定政策，而不是针对整个行业，可以更有效地加速wasp的采用。

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引用次数: 0

Mid-air haptics for automotive HUDs: A sketch anticipation and design fiction study 汽车hud的空中触觉：草图预测与设计研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124567

Orestis Georgiou , Roberto Montano , Dario Pittera , William Frier , Stephen Hughes , Patrick Haggard , Marianna Obrist , Patricia Cornelio

Innovations in the automotive industry, such as autonomous driving, AI assistants, head-up displays, and mid-air haptic touchless interactions, promise transformative benefits but may also introduce unanticipated risks and ethical concerns. To explore these potential challenges, we conducted a multi-stage study: first, we engaged 27 engineers specializing in touchless and automotive systems to envision future applications of mid-air haptics and head-up displays. Insights from this anticipatory design fiction informed the creation of high-fidelity storyboard sketches depicting six hypothetical scenarios. Using these storyboards and a custom questionnaire, we then surveyed 135 drivers across nine countries to assess their views on technology acceptance, interface usability, and responsible innovation. Results revealed significant demographic variability, alongside a dual sentiment: while drivers express enthusiasm for technological integration, they also voice concerns about safety, user control, and privacy. Our findings not only inform safer and more user-centered automotive innovation but also offer a multimodal framework for evaluating and guiding emerging technologies across diverse fields.

汽车行业的创新，如自动驾驶、人工智能助手、平视显示器和空中触觉非触摸交互，有望带来变革性的好处，但也可能带来意想不到的风险和道德问题。为了探索这些潜在的挑战，我们进行了一项多阶段的研究：首先，我们聘请了27名专门从事非接触式和汽车系统的工程师，以设想空中触觉和头视显示器的未来应用。从这种预期的设计小说中获得的见解为描绘六个假设场景的高保真故事板草图的创作提供了信息。使用这些故事板和自定义问卷，我们调查了9个国家的135名司机，评估他们对技术接受度、界面可用性和负责任的创新的看法。结果显示了显著的人口差异，以及双重情绪：尽管司机对技术集成表示热情，但他们也表达了对安全、用户控制和隐私的担忧。我们的研究结果不仅为更安全、更以用户为中心的汽车创新提供了信息，还为评估和指导不同领域的新兴技术提供了一个多模式框架。

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引用次数: 0

Forecasting emerging job opportunities using the subject-action-object approach 使用主体-行动-客体方法预测新出现的工作机会

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124536

Khadijeh Mousavi , Sepideh Fahimifar , Amir Salar Vanaki

The rapid advancement of technology is transforming employment, generating both opportunities and challenges for workers. Anticipating emerging job trends is essential to minimize the risks to the future of work. This study forecasts occupations expected to experience growth in the near future by applying the subject–action–object (SAO) approach, a text-mining technique that addresses the limitations of the co-word method. Using job task descriptions from the O*NET database, we extracted SAO structures and constructed a network that was analyzed using social network analysis. The findings reveal that the “Health” and “Education” career clusters are likely to dominate emerging job markets. Notably, occupations such as “Child, Family, and School Social Workers,” “Media Programming Directors,” “Solar Energy Installation Managers,” and “Microbiologists” are projected to generate significant employment opportunities in the coming years. Additionally, emerging topics, including data retention, legal issues, customer relations, art and media, the beauty industry, and food services, will play critical roles in shaping future job markets. The study also suggests that career networks will trend toward convergence, while tasks will show greater divergence. These findings are supported by driving factors, including global population aging, increasing healthcare demands, technological advancements, climate change, the transition to alternative energy, the growth of remote work, and psychological impacts.

技术的快速发展正在改变就业，给工人带来了机遇和挑战。预测新出现的工作趋势对于最大限度地减少未来工作的风险至关重要。本研究通过应用主体-动作-客体（SAO）方法预测了在不久的将来有望经历增长的职业，这是一种文本挖掘技术，解决了共词方法的局限性。利用O*NET数据库中的工作任务描述，提取SAO结构并构建网络，利用社会网络分析对其进行分析。调查结果显示，“健康”和“教育”类职业很可能主导新兴就业市场。值得注意的是，诸如“儿童、家庭和学校社会工作者”、“媒体节目总监”、“太阳能安装经理”和“微生物学家”等职业预计将在未来几年创造大量就业机会。此外，包括数据保留、法律问题、客户关系、艺术和媒体、美容行业和食品服务在内的新兴主题将在塑造未来的就业市场中发挥关键作用。该研究还表明，职业网络将趋于趋同，而任务将呈现更大的分化。这些发现得到了驱动因素的支持，包括全球人口老龄化、不断增长的医疗保健需求、技术进步、气候变化、向替代能源的过渡、远程工作的增长以及心理影响。

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引用次数: 0

Responsible AI in knowledge creation: An exploration of generative AI's opportunities and risks 知识创造中的负责任人工智能：生成式人工智能的机遇与风险探索

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124570

Shuanping Dai , Qinqian Li , Shizhen (Jasper) Jia , Gang Liu , Tomáš Kincl , Nick Hajli

This study explores the transformative potential and inherent challenges of Generative AI in the domain of knowledge creation and management, using the Socialization, Externalization, Combination, and Internalization (SECI) model as an analytical framework. Our qualitative research, based on content analysis from expert opinions, reveals that the integration of Generative AI in knowledge processes is inevitable and offers substantial productivity enhancements. These include providing diverse expression channels, simulating personalized interactions, and facilitating cross-disciplinary communication. However, significant risks accompany these benefits, such as threats to data security, personal privacy, and intellectual property, as well as issues of misinformation, data bias, and reduced human cognitive engagement. The findings extend the SECI model by highlighting specific challenges posed by AI technologies at each knowledge creation stage: socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization. The study underscores the necessity of a balanced approach, integrating technological, ethical, and socio-cultural perspectives to evaluate AI's impact comprehensively. Our research contributes to the theoretical understanding of AI's role in knowledge management and offers actionable strategies for its ethical and effective implementation, emphasizing the importance of interdisciplinary approaches and continuous regulatory adaptation.

本研究使用社会化、外部化、组合和内部化（SECI）模型作为分析框架，探讨了生成式人工智能在知识创造和管理领域的变革潜力和固有挑战。我们的定性研究基于专家意见的内容分析，揭示了生成式人工智能在知识过程中的整合是不可避免的，并提供了实质性的生产力提高。这包括提供多样化的表达渠道，模拟个性化互动，促进跨学科交流。然而，伴随着这些好处的是巨大的风险，例如对数据安全、个人隐私和知识产权的威胁，以及错误信息、数据偏差和人类认知参与度降低的问题。研究结果通过强调人工智能技术在每个知识创造阶段（社会化、外部化、组合和内部化）带来的具体挑战，扩展了SECI模型。该研究强调了采取平衡方法的必要性，将技术、伦理和社会文化观点结合起来，全面评估人工智能的影响。我们的研究有助于从理论上理解人工智能在知识管理中的作用，并为其伦理和有效实施提供可操作的策略，强调跨学科方法和持续监管适应的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Fostering well-being in Industry 5.0 through managerial behaviours and enabling technologies 通过管理行为和使能技术促进工业5.0的福祉

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124600

Michela Piccarozzi , Federica Caboni , Roberto Bruni

Industry 5.0 represents the latest industrial evolution, building on the foundations of Industry 4.0 while shifting the focus towards humanity, sustainability and resilience. In this paradigm, enabling technologies are redefined as tools that support human well-being first and business productivity second. Despite its growing relevance, the management literature remains fragmented on how specific managerial behaviours and technologies effectively support these new objectives. To address this gap, this research adopts a systematic literature review and thematic analysis to identify and systematise well-being-centred managerial behaviours and enabling technologies that facilitate the transition to Industry 5.0. The results reveal a relationship between managerial behaviours and enabling technological that can promote well-being-oriented innovation. A key contribution of this study is the conceptualisation of a new value-creation sequence: human well-being serves as the primary driver of productivity, ultimately leading to sustainable competitiveness. These findings offer important theoretical and managerial implications, providing an integrated framework that treats technology as a consequence of human-centred design. Finally, the study outlines future research paths to promote the development of a worker-centred industrial system.

工业5.0代表了最新的工业发展，建立在工业4.0的基础上，同时将重点转向人性化、可持续性和弹性。在这种范式中，赋能技术被重新定义为首先支持人类福祉、其次支持企业生产力的工具。尽管其相关性越来越大，但管理文献在具体的管理行为和技术如何有效地支持这些新目标方面仍然支离破碎。为了解决这一差距，本研究采用了系统的文献综述和专题分析，以识别和系统化以福祉为中心的管理行为和促进向工业5.0过渡的使能技术。研究结果揭示了管理行为与促进福祉导向创新的技术之间的关系。本研究的一个关键贡献是概念化了一个新的价值创造序列：人类福祉是生产力的主要驱动力，最终导致可持续的竞争力。这些发现提供了重要的理论和管理意义，提供了一个综合框架，将技术视为以人为本的设计的结果。最后，研究概述了未来的研究路径，以促进以工人为中心的产业体系的发展。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing corporate green innovation through science: The role of freedom of expression and NGOs 通过科学推动企业绿色创新：言论自由和非政府组织的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124577

Imane El Ouadghiri , Jonathan Peillex , Federico Platania , Celina Toscano Hernandez

We contribute to recent developments in Triple Helix model by examining the impact of environmental research output on corporate environmental innovation, with a particular emphasis on the role of government and civil society in shaping this relationship. Drawing on a large sample of 1781 companies across 42 countries from 2010 to 2023, we find that a greater volume of environment-related scientific research positively influences firms' capacity to develop environmental innovations. Two underlying mechanisms appear to explain this effect. First, environmental research plays a cognitive role by facilitating the diffusion of scientific knowledge that is essential for environmental innovation. Second, scientific output exerts a normative institutional influence, guiding organizational behavior toward greater sustainability. We further show that these dynamics are strengthened by the moderating effects of freedom of expression and the presence of environmental NGOs.

我们通过研究环境研究成果对企业环境创新的影响，为三螺旋模型的最新发展做出贡献，特别强调政府和民间社会在形成这种关系中的作用。通过对42个国家1781家公司2010年至2023年的大样本分析，我们发现，更多的环境相关科学研究对企业开发环境创新的能力产生了积极影响。两个潜在的机制似乎可以解释这种效应。首先，环境研究通过促进对环境创新至关重要的科学知识的传播而发挥认知作用。其次，科学产出具有规范性的制度影响，引导组织行为走向更大的可持续性。我们进一步表明，言论自由和环境非政府组织的存在的调节作用加强了这些动态。

引用次数: 0

Imported intermediates and firm performance: A difference-in-differences analysis of matched Indian manufacturing firms 进口中间体与企业绩效：匹配的印度制造企业的差异分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124571

Nitika Arneja, Chandan Sharma

Firm-level evidence on the impact of imported intermediate inputs in India remains limited, and the combined use of propensity score matching with difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) has not previously been applied in this context. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms from 2002 to 2019, this study examines how imported inputs affect three key outcomes: technological capability, export intensity, and financial performance. By comparing importing firms with matched non-importers, the analysis provides evidence of performance differences linked to the use of foreign intermediates. The findings show that firms importing inputs perform better than non-importers across all three measures. Export performance and technological capability improve soon after firms begin importing, while financial gains take longer to appear but turn out to be the greatest. The results remain consistent across a range of robustness checks, including placebo tests, alternative matching methods, and the entropy balancing approach. Overall, the evidence supports the learning-by-importing hypothesis, highlighting that access to imported inputs can act as a catalyst for broader performance gains. In light of the growing global shift toward protectionism and the long-standing policy focus on export promotion, the study emphasizes the need for balanced trade strategies that also recognize the critical role of imports.

在印度，关于进口中间投入影响的企业层面证据仍然有限，并且倾向得分匹配与差异中的差异（PSM-DID）的组合使用以前并未在此背景下应用。利用2002年至2019年印度制造业企业的数据，本研究考察了进口投入如何影响三个关键结果：技术能力、出口强度和财务绩效。通过比较进口公司与匹配的非进口公司，分析提供了与使用外国中间体有关的业绩差异的证据。研究结果表明，进口投入的企业在所有三个指标上的表现都优于非进口企业。在企业开始进口后，出口业绩和技术能力很快就会改善，而财务收益需要更长的时间才能出现，但最终证明是最大的。结果在一系列稳健性检查中保持一致，包括安慰剂测试、替代匹配方法和熵平衡方法。总体而言，证据支持“通过导入学习”假说，强调获得进口投入可以促进更广泛的绩效提升。鉴于全球日益转向保护主义以及长期以来的政策重点是促进出口，该研究强调需要制定平衡的贸易战略，同时认识到进口的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Patent strategies in the age of FinTech: Understanding IP management practices and open innovation across financial institutions 金融科技时代的专利战略：理解金融机构的知识产权管理实践和开放式创新

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124581

Milad Armani Dehghani , Alexander Brauneis , Dionysios Karavidas

Purpose

This study examines the changing role of patent strategies within the financial sector, with a particular focus on the contrasting approaches of traditional banking institutions and FinTech firms and how these strategies shape innovation and competitive advantage in the context of ongoing technological and regulatory transformation.

Design

The analysis draws on a longitudinal dataset of patent filings from 2000 to 2023, covering six leading global banks, five major credit card companies, and four prominent FinTech firms. Patent indicators such as filing volume, forward citations, jurisdictional dispersion, and ownership transitions are integrated with firm-level financial data, including profitability metrics and structural characteristics, to examine how IP strategies relate to firm performance.

Findings

The results reveal divergent IP strategies between incumbents and FinTech entrants. Traditional banks primarily employ defensive IP tactics, whereas FinTech firms pursue more exploratory and innovation-driven patenting activity. The analysis also shows that inter-firm collaborations, joint ventures, and acquisitions are increasingly used as strategic tools to strengthen IP assets and enhance competitive positioning.

Implications

The findings underscore the strategic significance of IP management in the financial sector, not only as a protective mechanism but also as a way to create value, support partnerships, and strengthen competitive advantage. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of how financial institutions deploy IP strategically to drive innovation and growth in a changing market.

本研究考察了专利策略在金融部门中不断变化的作用，特别关注传统银行机构和金融科技公司的对比方法，以及这些策略如何在持续的技术和监管转型背景下塑造创新和竞争优势。该分析利用了2000年至2023年专利申请的纵向数据集，涵盖了六家领先的全球银行、五家主要信用卡公司和四家著名的金融科技公司。专利指标（如申请量、远期引用、管辖权分散和所有权转移）与公司层面的财务数据（包括盈利指标和结构特征）相结合，以检查知识产权战略与公司绩效之间的关系。研究结果显示，现有企业和金融科技新进入者之间的知识产权战略存在差异。传统银行主要采用防御性知识产权策略，而金融科技公司则更多地追求探索性和创新驱动的专利活动。分析还表明，企业间合作、合资企业和收购越来越多地被用作加强知识产权资产和提高竞争定位的战略工具。研究结果强调了金融部门知识产权管理的战略意义，它不仅是一种保护机制，而且是创造价值、支持伙伴关系和加强竞争优势的一种方式。该研究有助于更深入地了解金融机构如何在不断变化的市场中战略性地部署知识产权以推动创新和增长。

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引用次数: 0

Sensemaking and AI: Unraveling individuals' reactions to the black box in a three-study investigation 意义制造和人工智能：在一项三项研究调查中揭示个人对黑匣子的反应

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124491

Domenico di Prisco , Silvia Dello Russo

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies promise to transform how people perform tasks and make decisions within organizations. Yet, their impact on human reasoning processes remains poorly understood. When encountering an unexpected AI suggestion, individuals may either attempt to understand the reasoning behind it or blindly accept or reject it. What drives these different reactions, however, remains unexplored. Unpacking these factors is essential to advance our understanding of augmentation and prevent major decision-making failures. This study addresses this gap through three experimental studies. In study 1 we find that, when performing a task, the unexpected failure of one's own frames increases the likelihood of individuals blindly accepting AI suggestions and effortfully trying to explain them. In study 2 we shed light on the underlying reasons for the results, by analyzing qualitative insights. We find that the unexpected failure of frames promotes “problematization pivoting”, a phenomenon wherein individuals anchor their reasoning to opaque AI suggestions ignoring other available cues. In study 3, we add evidence of potential negative performance implications associated with effects documented before. Overall, these findings contribute to the literature on human-AI augmentation and sensemaking theory, while also alerting managers and policymakers on the perils associated with AI use.

人工智能（AI）技术有望改变人们在组织内执行任务和做出决策的方式。然而，它们对人类推理过程的影响仍然知之甚少。当遇到意想不到的AI建议时，个体可能会试图理解其背后的原因，或者盲目地接受或拒绝它。然而，究竟是什么导致了这些不同的反应仍未被探索。揭示这些因素对于提高我们对增强的理解和防止重大决策失败至关重要。本研究通过三个实验研究解决了这一差距。在研究1中，我们发现，在执行任务时，自己框架的意外失败会增加个体盲目接受人工智能建议并努力解释这些建议的可能性。在研究2中，我们通过分析定性的见解，阐明了结果的潜在原因。我们发现框架的意外失败促进了“问题化转向”，这是一种现象，即个体将其推理锚定在不透明的AI建议上，而忽略了其他可用的线索。在研究3中，我们增加了与之前记录的影响相关的潜在负面绩效影响的证据。总的来说，这些发现有助于人类-人工智能增强和意义生成理论的文献，同时也提醒管理人员和政策制定者注意与人工智能使用相关的危险。

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引用次数: 0