Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123871

Wei Liao, Jianping Gu, Kaijian Li

Technological innovation serves as an intrinsic driver for regional economic development, particularly wherein breakthrough innovations exert a profound impact on the continuous evolution of regional technologies and industrial upgrading. Given the uneven distribution of innovation resources and technological capabilities across regions, regions should not only focus on indigenous innovation but also consider how to leverage knowledge from outside the region. This approach is crucial for breaking the path dependency of innovation to achieve regional technological breakthrough. Our paper broadens the technological relatedness framework from a local scope to an inter-regional context by introducing the concept of external technological densities. Specifically, we investigate the nuanced roles of external technologies distinguished by relatedness and unrelatedness, in shaping the trajectories of regional breakthrough technological innovation. Our research underscores the crucial role of assimilating knowledge spillovers from related external technologies for catching-up regions, as such integration fosters breakthrough innovations, while the inclusion of unrelated external technologies exhibits adverse effects. Moreover, both external identical technology and external related technology complement local related technology, jointly facilitating breakthroughs in relative technological advantages. However, in high-complexity cities and technological domains, it is more critical to leverage local related and unrelated technologies rather than relying on external knowledge spillovers.

技术创新是区域经济发展的内在驱动力，尤其是突破性创新对区域技术的持续演进和产业升级产生深远影响。鉴于各地区创新资源和技术能力分布不均，各地区不应只关注本土创新，还应考虑如何利用地区外的知识。这种方法对于打破创新的路径依赖，实现区域技术突破至关重要。我们的论文通过引入外部技术密度的概念，将技术关联性框架从本地范围扩展到区域间范围。具体而言，我们研究了外部技术在塑造区域突破性技术创新轨迹中的微妙作用，这些外部技术有相关性和非相关性之分。我们的研究强调，对于追赶型地区来说，吸收相关外部技术的知识溢出效应至关重要，因为这种整合会促进突破性创新，而吸收非相关外部技术则会产生不利影响。此外，外部相同技术和外部相关技术都是对本地相关技术的补充，共同促进了相对技术优势的突破。然而，在高复杂性城市和技术领域，利用本地相关技术和非相关技术比依赖外部知识溢出更为重要。

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引用次数: 0

Standardization and Standards: Safeguards of Technological Sovereignty? 标准化与标准：技术主权的保障？

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123873

Knut Blind

Technological sovereignty has gained significant relevance for the geopolitical relations during the Covid-19 pandemic, initially triggered by the trade conflicts in particular between the U.S. and China and now even further fired by the Russian attack of the Ukraine. Consequently, policy measures have been discussed to achieve technological sovereignty. Despite the growing relevance of standardization, their opportunities have only to a limited extent been considered an effective policy instrument to secure or even achieve technological sovereignty. Based on a review of the literature, the mechanism of standardization and standards as safeguards for technological sovereignty are elaborated. We offer a list of propositions to be tested in future studies. Using mobile communication standardization to illustrate its specific characteristics including its development process, we elaborate on the effectiveness of the various safeguard mechanism. Finally, policy implications are derived for the various mechanisms. The paper ends with challenges for standardization and standards to achieve or assure technological sovereignty in the future geopolitical contexts.

在科维德-19 大流行病期间，技术主权对地缘政治关系具有重要意义，最初是由中美之间的贸易冲突引发的，现在又因俄罗斯对乌克兰的攻击而进一步升温。因此，人们开始讨论实现技术主权的政策措施。尽管标准化的重要性与日俱增，但其机遇仅在有限程度上被视为确保甚至实现技术主权的有效政策工具。在回顾文献的基础上，我们阐述了标准化和标准作为技术主权保障的机制。我们提出了一系列有待未来研究检验的命题。通过移动通信标准化来说明其具体特点，包括其发展过程，我们阐述了各种保障机制的有效性。最后，得出了各种机制的政策含义。本文最后提出了在未来地缘政治背景下实现或确保技术主权的标准化和标准所面临的挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence as a catalyst for sustainable tourism growth and economic cycles 人工智能作为旅游业可持续增长和经济周期的催化剂

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123875

Abu Bakkar Siddik , Md. Shak Forid , Li Yong , Anna Min Du , John W. Goodell

We investigate the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in promoting sustainable tourism growth and its implications for the next technological and economic cycle. Focusing on the top ten global tourist destinations from 2010 to 2022, we investigate the interplay between AI adoption, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation (INF), and urbanization (UB). Utilizing a multi-method approach that integrates artificial neural network (ANN) analysis with traditional econometric models, the findings highlight that AI is a critical driver of tourism efficiency and smart tourism capabilities, significantly enhancing tourism sustainability. The study reveals substantial contributions from GDP, INF, FDI, and UB as well. AI's role as a pivotal technological catalyst in sustainable tourism development underscores its importance in shaping the next economic cycle. These insights provide essential guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders on leveraging AI to propel tourism growth, aligning with broader goals of economic and environmental sustainability.

我们研究了人工智能（AI）在促进旅游业可持续增长中的作用及其对下一个技术和经济周期的影响。我们以 2010 年至 2022 年全球十大旅游目的地为重点，研究了人工智能的采用、国内生产总值（GDP）、外国直接投资（FDI）、通货膨胀（INF）和城市化（UB）之间的相互作用。研究采用多种方法，将人工神经网络（ANN）分析与传统计量经济学模型相结合，结果突出表明，人工智能是旅游业效率和智慧旅游能力的关键驱动力，可显著提高旅游业的可持续性。研究还揭示了 GDP、INF、FDI 和 UB 的实质性贡献。人工智能作为旅游业可持续发展的关键技术催化剂，凸显了其在塑造下一个经济周期中的重要性。这些见解为政策制定者和行业利益相关者提供了重要指导，帮助他们利用人工智能推动旅游业增长，实现经济和环境可持续发展的更广泛目标。

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引用次数: 0

Enabling a viable circular ecosystem for electric vehicle batteries 打造可行的电动汽车电池循环生态系统

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123876

Johan Wellten , Jannis Angelis , Elias Ribeiro da Silva

Greater use and reuse of electric vehicle batteries is needed for the ongoing electrification of the transport sector towards a net-zero and carbon-low economy. Such battery second-life uses and later recycling requires an ecosystem with actors having reliable battery tracking and equitably sharing usage information. However, existing studies do not prescribe viable solutions to such circular ecosystems. Therefore, this study explores the electric vehicle battery ecosystem's structures, actors, and processes that may enable battery circularity. The study was conducted on one global electric vehicle battery supply chain in the heavy-duty and commercial vehicle sector. It covers all phases of the battery journey. Primary data was collected through interviews and observations, and supported by secondary documentary data. For contribution, while the existing literature on battery circularity largely focuses on technology choices for information transparency, sharing and tracking, our study develops a value model that identifies key considerations for creating a viable electric vehicle battery ecosystem and the challenges that participating actors need to resolve. Practically, the findings demonstrate the importance of actors being adaptive in all parts of EVB circularity development, and it highlights the critical role the OEM has to ensure that equitable value sharing occurs among the various partners.

为了使交通部门不断电气化，实现净零碳和低碳经济，需要更多地使用和再利用电动汽车电池。这种电池的二次使用和以后的回收利用需要一个生态系统，其中的参与者需要对电池进行可靠的跟踪，并公平分享使用信息。然而，现有研究并没有为这种循环生态系统提出可行的解决方案。因此，本研究探讨了电动汽车电池生态系统的结构、参与者和流程，以实现电池的循环利用。本研究针对重型和商用车领域的一个全球电动汽车电池供应链进行。它涵盖了电池生产过程的所有阶段。通过访谈和观察收集原始数据，并辅以二手文献数据。我们的研究建立了一个价值模型，确定了创建可行的电动汽车电池生态系统的主要考虑因素，以及参与方需要解决的挑战。在实践中，研究结果表明了参与者在电动汽车电池循环发展的各个环节中保持适应性的重要性，并强调了原始设备制造商在确保各合作伙伴公平分享价值方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Examining trust in cryptocurrency investment: Insights from the structural equation modeling 研究加密货币投资中的信任问题：结构方程建模的启示

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123882

Ali Saeedi, Anas Al-Fattal

The purpose of this study is to investigate investors' trust in cryptocurrency investment. The study employs a survey through a Qualtrics panel of 458 participants from the US with cryptocurrency investment experience. The data was collected in June 2022. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to construct the five-aspect model of trust in cryptocurrency investment and test the research hypotheses. This research examines technological, societal, regulatory, developers, and specifications aspects. The findings show significant positive relationships between trust and all five aspects of trust (i.e., technology, social, regulations, developers, and specifications). In addition, the multi-group analyses indicate differences between groups of education, age, gender, and amount of investment in terms of various aspects of trust. The significant differences are more evident in the aspects of regulations, social, and developer between two groups of females and males. These findings contribute to our understanding of trust in cryptocurrency investments, highlighting the importance of technology reliability, regulatory certainty, societal approval, developer transparency, and cryptocurrency specifications in establishing investor trust.

本研究旨在调查投资者对加密货币投资的信任度。本研究通过 Qualtrics 小组对美国 458 名具有加密货币投资经验的参与者进行了调查。数据收集于 2022 年 6 月。研究采用结构方程模型（SEM）构建了加密货币投资信任的五方面模型，并检验了研究假设。本研究考察了技术、社会、监管、开发者和规格等方面。研究结果表明，信任与所有五个方面的信任（即技术、社会、监管、开发者和规范）之间存在显着的正相关关系。此外，多组分析表明，不同教育程度、年龄、性别和投资额的群体在信任的各个方面存在差异。在法规、社会和开发人员方面，女性和男性两组之间的差异更为明显。这些发现有助于我们理解加密货币投资中的信任问题，突出了技术可靠性、监管确定性、社会认可度、开发者透明度和加密货币规格在建立投资者信任方面的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Do you believe in the metaverse NFTs? Understanding the value proposition of NFTs in the metaverse 您相信元宇宙中的 NFT 吗？了解元宇宙中 NFT 的价值主张

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123880

Aman Kumar , Amit Shankar , Abhishek Behl , Samuel Fosso Wamba

This study investigates consumer intention to purchase NFTs in the metaverse using the underpinnings of the theory of consumption values (TCV). This study uses a sequential mixed-methods approach (qualitative + quantitative) to explore and examine the influence of consumption values on NFT purchase intentions. The findings of the qualitative study revealed five crucial consumption values (functional, emotional, experiential, altruistic, and symbolic) driving the NFT purchase intentions in the metaverse. However, the findings of the quantitative study revealed that only four consumption values i.e., emotional value, experiential value, altruistic value, and symbolic value are significantly and positively associated with NFTs purchase intention in the metaverse. Further, consumer inspiration towards NFTs significantly meditates the association between emotional value, symbolic value, and NFTs purchase intention in the metaverse. Also, trend affinity moderates the mediating effect of consumer inspiration on the relationship between emotional value, symbolic value, and NFTs purchase intention in the metaverse. This research makes a substantial contribution to the growing body of literature concerning the metaverse and NFTs. Additionally, it enhances our comprehension of consumer behaviour within the metaverse context. Also, this study provides several implications for marketers and organizations.

本研究以消费价值观（TCV）理论为基础，调查消费者在元宇宙中购买非软体商品的意向。本研究采用了一种连续的混合方法（定性+定量）来探索和研究消费价值观对 NFT 购买意向的影响。定性研究的结果揭示了五种关键的消费价值观（功能性、情感性、体验性、利他性和象征性），这些价值观驱动着元宇宙中的 NFT 购买意向。然而，定量研究的结果显示，只有四种消费价值（即情感价值、体验价值、利他价值和象征价值）与元海外的 NFT 购买意向显著正相关。此外，消费者对无纺布的灵感也会明显调节情感价值、象征价值与元海外无纺布购买意向之间的关联。同时，趋势亲和力也调节了消费者灵感对元海外情感价值、象征价值和 NFTs 购买意向之间关系的中介效应。这项研究为不断增加的有关元海外和 NFTs 的文献做出了重大贡献。此外，它还增强了我们对元海外背景下消费者行为的理解。此外，本研究还为营销人员和组织机构提供了一些启示。

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引用次数: 0

The contagion effect of artificial intelligence across innovative industries: From blockchain and metaverse to cleantech and beyond 人工智能在创新产业中的传染效应：从区块链和元宇宙到清洁技术及其他

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123822

Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Nadia Arfaoui , Larisa Yarovaya

Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as a transformative force across business, technology, and science, yet its comprehensive impact on innovative industries remains relatively unexplored. This study delves into the interconnectedness between AI and pivotal sectors such as cryptocurrency, blockchain, metaverse, democratized banking, and Cleantech, among others. Employing the conditional autoregressive value-at-risk (CAViaR) and time-varying parameters vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR) methods, we scrutinize daily data spanning from June 1, 2018, to October 11, 2023, encompassing 12 stock indices representing each industry. Our findings unveil a strong contagion effect from AI to other innovative sectors, with the exception of Cleantech, which appears to have decoupled from the AI surge. Notably, democratized banking and the metaverse emerge as key recipients of this contagion. Examination of tail-risk spillovers highlights AI as one of the most influential risk transmitters during market tumult, while cryptocurrency and blockchain consistently function as net risk receivers throughout the sample period. The implications of these findings are multifaceted, offering substantive insights into the risk profiles of these critical innovative sectors. Investors and regulatory bodies stand to benefit significantly from this analysis, as it illuminates potential avenues for portfolio diversification and deepens understanding of contagion mechanisms within these evolving industries.

人工智能（AI）是横跨商业、技术和科学领域的变革力量，但其对创新行业的全面影响仍相对欠缺。本研究深入探讨了人工智能与加密货币、区块链、元宇宙、民主化银行和清洁技术等关键行业之间的相互联系。我们采用条件自回归风险价值（CAViaR）和时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）方法，仔细研究了从2018年6月1日到2023年10月11日的每日数据，涵盖了代表各行业的12个股票指数。我们的研究结果揭示了人工智能对其他创新行业的强烈传染效应，但清洁技术行业除外，该行业似乎已与人工智能浪潮脱钩。值得注意的是，民主化银行业和元宇宙成为这种传染效应的主要接受者。对尾部风险溢出效应的研究表明，人工智能是市场动荡期间最有影响力的风险传播者之一，而加密货币和区块链在整个样本期间始终是净风险接收者。这些发现的影响是多方面的，为这些关键创新领域的风险状况提供了实质性的见解。投资者和监管机构将从这一分析中获益匪浅，因为它揭示了投资组合多样化的潜在途径，并加深了对这些不断发展的行业内传染机制的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding service robot adoption and resistance from a service provider perspective 从服务提供商的角度了解服务机器人的采用和阻力

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123885

Yohan Cho, Gyu Hyun Kwon

With the advancement of AI technology, service robots are gradually becoming a part of our daily lives. Many existing studies have focused on the Pre-Adoption of service robots from the consumer's perspective. However, there is a lack of research from the provider's perspective, as well as studies integrating both Pre-Adoption and Post-Adoption phases. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the factors influencing service providers' Pre-Adoption and Post-Adoption of service robots, and identify the elements impeding these processes. To achieve this goal, we conducted a qualitative study based on YouTube interview videos with 31 service providers who actively use service robots in their work. The analysis of these interviews identified 18 topics, which were categorized into four dimensions: Pre-Adoption, Post-Adoption, Reasons for Adoption, and Reasons against Adoption. This categorization allowed us to understand the factors influencing adoption and resistance at each stage of the service robot adoption process. These results have significant implications for buyers and operators who want to implement service robots in practice, as well as for robot suppliers who design and develop service robots.

随着人工智能技术的发展，服务机器人正逐渐成为我们日常生活的一部分。现有的许多研究都侧重于从消费者的角度研究服务机器人的 "采用前"（Pre-Adoption）问题。然而，从服务提供者的角度进行的研究，以及将 "采用前 "和 "采用后 "两个阶段结合起来进行的研究还很缺乏。因此，本研究旨在调查影响服务提供商对服务机器人 "采用前 "和 "采用后 "的因素，并找出阻碍这些过程的因素。为了实现这一目标，我们通过 YouTube 采访了 31 位在工作中积极使用服务机器人的服务提供商，并对他们的采访视频进行了定性研究。对这些访谈的分析确定了 18 个主题，并将其分为四个方面：采用前、采用后、采用原因和反对采用的原因。通过这种分类，我们了解了在服务机器人采用过程的每个阶段影响采用和抵制的因素。这些结果对希望在实践中使用服务机器人的购买者和操作者，以及设计和开发服务机器人的机器人供应商具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating big data and cloud computing into the existing system and performance impact: A case study in manufacturing 将大数据和云计算融入现有系统及其性能影响：制造业案例研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123883

Jeetendra Kumar Saraswat, Sanjay Choudhari

Manufacturing companies generate vast but underutilised business data in ERP systems. Valuable insights can be derived from unexplored data by using big data analytics, enabling managers to make well-informed decisions. Cloud computing, with its cost-effective resources, offers access to hosting and facilitating such access. Despite extensive literature, real-life applications illustrating how manufacturing companies can derive value from data through the integration of big data and cloud are still lacking.

This study, based on a manufacturing case study, investigates the process of integrating big data and cloud computing into the existing ERP system. It is argued in the literature that big data benefits will be limited if it is not aligned with the established culture and resources in the implementation process, known as big data capability. The paper explores the company's journey, evaluating the importance and overall development of preexisting capability during adoption. The work assesses the impact of big data on operational performance. The several insights obtained from the real-life case serve as a valuable guide for managers embarking on big data projects. The findings establish the importance of big data capability and illustrate how manufacturing companies can seamlessly integrate these technologies and improve performance without compromising existing ERP systems.

制造企业在 ERP 系统中生成了大量业务数据，但这些数据却未得到充分利用。通过使用大数据分析，可以从未曾开发的数据中获得有价值的见解，使管理人员能够做出明智的决策。云计算具有成本效益高的资源，可提供托管服务并促进这种访问。本研究以一个制造业案例为基础，探讨了将大数据和云计算整合到现有 ERP 系统的过程。有文献认为，在实施过程中，如果大数据与既定的文化和资源（即大数据能力）不相匹配，那么大数据的效益将是有限的。本文探讨了公司的发展历程，评估了在采用过程中已有能力的重要性和整体发展情况。作品评估了大数据对运营绩效的影响。从真实案例中获得的若干启示，可为着手开展大数据项目的管理人员提供宝贵的指导。研究结果确定了大数据能力的重要性，并说明了制造企业如何在不影响现有 ERP 系统的情况下无缝集成这些技术并提高绩效。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of different types of knowledge intensive business services on innovation and performance 不同类型的知识密集型商业服务对创新和绩效的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123886

Marlene Mendoza , Luis M. Molina , M. Teresa Ortega-Egea

In recent years, firms have increasingly used knowledge services provided by knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS), but evidence on their impact on customer outcomes is mixed. To explain these mixed findings, this research proposes two explanations: The mediating role of knowledge integration capability (KIC) and the differential impact of different types of KIBS. KIBS can be of different types: professional (P-KIBS), research and development (R&D-KIBS) and information and communication technology (ICT-KIBS). To test the hypotheses of the research model, data from 368 firms in a developing country (Ecuador) were collected using PLS-SEM software. The results show that the effect of KIBS use on customer performance is a more complex relationship than might be expected a priori, as it depends on several factors. First, the effect of P-KIBS on customer performance is mediated by the knowledge integration capability of the customer firm. Second, the effect of R&D-KIBS on innovation performance is direct but does not affect overall performance. Third, the results indicate that ICT-KIBS do not have a significant effect on customer performance. The analysis of these results indicates the need for further studies to understand the complexity underlying this relationship.

近年来，企业越来越多地使用知识密集型商业服务（KIBS）提供的知识服务，但有关这些服务对客户结果影响的证据却喜忧参半。为了解释这些参差不齐的研究结果，本研究提出了两种解释：知识整合能力（KIC）的中介作用和不同类型 KIBS 的不同影响。KIBS 可以分为不同类型：专业型（P-KIBS）、研发型（R&D-KIBS）以及信息和通信技术型（ICT-KIBS）。为了检验研究模型的假设，使用 PLS-SEM 软件收集了一个发展中国家（厄瓜多尔）368 家企业的数据。结果表明，使用 KIBS 对客户绩效的影响是一种比先验预期更为复杂的关系，因为它取决于多个因素。首先，P-KIBS 对客户绩效的影响是以客户企业的知识整合能力为中介的。其次，研发-知识创新支持系统对创新绩效的影响是直接的，但不影响总体绩效。第三，结果表明 ICT-KIBS 对客户绩效没有显著影响。对这些结果的分析表明，有必要开展进一步研究，以了解这种关系背后的复杂性。

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引用次数: 0