Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

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Hesitation at increasing integration: The feasibility of Norway expanding cross-border renewable electricity interconnection to support European decarbonisation

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123917

Benjamin Ronald Silvester

Norway is rich in renewable energy resources and exports a significant amount of electricity cross-border. By expanding its exports, Norway could play a crucial role in balancing the growing share of renewables in Europe's energy systems. This article therefore examines the feasibility of Norway expanding its electricity interconnection to support European decarbonisation efforts over the coming decades. To support the analysis, a techno-economic-political feasibility (TEPF) framework for assessing the feasibility of specified transition scenarios is proposed. The Norwegian context is explored through key developments such as the rejection of the 1400 MW NorthConnect cable in 2020 and the effects of Europe's energy crisis (2021−2023), alongside Russia's invasion of Ukraine (2022-), on the electricity market. While technological and economic factors are significant, such as grid reinforcement and investments in new generation capacities, political concerns pose the greatest limitations to increasing interconnection. These challenges revolve around debates over the ownership of key energy infrastructure, concerns over sovereignty and the influence of the European Union, uncertainty surrounding future energy demand, risks to energy security, the impact of market coupling on electricity prices, and the uneven distribution of revenues. Collectively, these concerns underpin Norway's hesitation to increase integration with other states, representing key barriers.

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引用次数: 0

Shaping the future through developing and managing breakthrough innovations: A new conceptual framework

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124039

Kenneth G. Huang , Yu-Shan Su , Jin Chen , Yuya Kajikawa

Breakthrough innovations and technologies have gained increasing attention and have the potential to contribute to the development of a better society. Important breakthrough innovations and emerging technologies include fifth generation (5G) telecommunications technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things, digital platforms and businesses, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, e-payment/e-commerce technologies, and renewable energies. By reviewing recent papers published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, this study proposes a novel conceptual framework for the development and design of such breakthrough technologies. There are three levels in this pyramidal framework: (i) exploring and identifying breakthrough innovations and emerging technologies; (ii) analyzing and managing breakthrough technological innovations and their innovation ecosystems; (iii) synthesizing and strategizing breakthrough innovations such as through digital platforms and businesses. This study makes two important contributions. First, by reviewing a set of coherent studies that shed light on the theoretical and empirical boundaries of research and knowledge in this area, this study pushes these boundaries with the goal of advancing the development and management of breakthrough innovations. Second, this study proposes a novel, integrative conceptual framework which encompasses different levels of activities associated with breakthrough innovations which could help develop and manage breakthrough innovations for the society of tomorrow.

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引用次数: 0

Critical successes factors for the adoption of additive manufacturing: Integrated impact for circular economy model

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124041

Javed Aslam , Aqeela Saleem , Kee-hung Lai , Yun Bae Kim

Additive manufacturing (AM) or three-dimensional (3D) printing is an emerging technology shaping the manufacturing industry, offering performance improvement opportunities for society and the economy. AM supports the circular economy (CE) by enabling sustainable consumption and production. This study identifies factors of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, social influence, environmental sustainability, social sustainability, technical efficacy, and government support to determine the adoption of AM with survey data collected from 487 managers of manufacturing enterprises. The study proposed a theoretical framework that integrates the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) and the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE), providing valuable insight that can guide future research and inform decision-making in the industry. The study revealed that identified critical success factors have significantly influenced AM implementation. Furthermore, how AM adoption supports the implementation of CE, a new production and consumption model promoting sustainable growth. The study guides the managers in the connection between the AM and CE models and suggests implementing CE practices as an integral part of their AM adoption strategy.

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引用次数: 0

Key enablers for energy firms in implementing the SDGs: Lessons based on a resource-based view approach

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124011

Josep Llach , Erola Palau-Pinyana , Linan Lei , Jordi Perramon

Considering the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this paper explores the critical role of the energy sector in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Employing a resource-based view perspective, this study investigates the enablers that facilitate SDGs implementation within global energy firms, distinguishing between renewable energy and fossil fuel firms. By means of an empirical analysis using the Refinitiv Eikon database, covering 522 firms across the fossil fuel and renewable energy sectors, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling and Qualitative Comparative Analysis are used to understand the enablers that explain the implementation of SDGs in this industry. Our findings indicate significant differences between renewable energy and fossil fuel firms in relation to the effectiveness of enablers, underscoring the complexity of implementing SDGs in the energy sector. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of how energy firms can leverage their resources and capabilities to align with the 2030 Agenda, offering insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to support the transition of the energy sector towards sustainability.

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引用次数: 0

Designing electric mobility solutions: A dynamic capability model

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124037

Eduardo Zancul , Christoph Deutskens , Kai Kreisköther , Heiner Heimes , Achim Kampker

Advances in transportation electrification have been transforming the mobility sector. Changes in energy sources, powertrains, and the increasing role of software and services have opened opportunities for novel solutions and increased competition. Consequently, companies seek to enhance and streamline product development for electric vehicles (EVs). However, research on vehicle electrification from the perspective of innovation management remains scarce. Previous studies predominantly adopted a conceptual approach with limited empirical evidence or are restricted to single-case research, leaving a gap in comprehensive, empirically grounded analyses of EV product design process. We conducted a qualitative multiple-case study employing a dynamic capability (DC) foundation, as it is well-suited to the ongoing evolution of the mobility industry. Prior studies have applied DCs to analyze mobility electrification at the market level, while a deeper understanding of product innovation is still needed. This study aimed to fill this gap by identifying, systematizing, and discussing emerging patterns in the development of electric mobility solutions. The results include a DC model for designing electric mobility solutions, consisting of ten capabilities organized into four aggregate dimensions: external perspectives, uncertainty management, synchronization, and systems engineering. Another result is a detailed description of how companies are developing electric mobility solutions.

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引用次数: 0

Mitigating safety challenges in human-robot collaboration: The role of human competence 减轻人机协作中的安全挑战：人类能力的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124022

Kyungran Jung, Jae-Suk Yang

The integration of collaborative robots (cobots) into manufacturing has facilitated the development of flexible and intelligent factories. However, safety concerns emerge when humans and cobots operate in close proximity within shared spaces. This study examines the impact of cobot adoption on industrial injuries and the role of human competence in mitigating these risks. Drawing on data from South Korea's manufacturing sector, a global leader in robot deployment, our empirical analysis reveals that firms using cobots experience a rise in industrial accidents. The proportion of long-term employees and job rotation reduces injury rates, while multifunctional training correlates with an increase in injuries. To minimize cobot-related workplace injuries, we recommend securing skilled personnel, fostering competence through strategic task rotations, and implementing targeted training programs. These findings highlight the importance of a socio-technical systems perspective to address the complex interactions between technology, human factors, and organizational dynamics in workplace safety. This study also provides practical implications for enhancing human competence to reduce human errors and prevent cobot-related accidents.

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引用次数: 0

Blockchain technologies adoption in healthcare: Overcoming barriers amid the hype cycle to enhance patient care

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124031

Usharani Hareesh Govindarajan , Gagan Narang , Dhiraj Kumar Singh , Vinay Surendra Yadav

Blockchain technologies are increasingly recognized as a transformative force across industries, offering potential solutions for information management, data security, and operational efficiency improvement. However, integration into the healthcare sector faces significant barriers, ranging from technical challenges to organizational resistance. In this study, a methodology is proposed that examines these critical barriers through a comprehensive analysis of 3265 academic papers and derives actionable solutions from 1566 patents published between 2016 and 2023. This approach bridges the gap between identifying challenges and implementing solutions. Using the “Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA)”, twelve critical adoption challenges are analyzed, while Top2Vec-based topic modeling identifies innovations that best address the ranked barriers. In addition to this, the proposed ‘healthcare ecosphere’ knowledge map serves as a comprehensive tool to analyze key stakeholders, their interactions, and the alignment of adoption barriers in solution spaces. The findings show that innovations in blockchain technologies are heavily concentrated in areas such as data security and application functionalities, whereas other critical domains—such as consensus mechanisms, governance, and regulatory frameworks—remain underexplored, pointing to opportunities for growth and development. The mapping of barriers to solutions provides practical guidance for healthcare providers, policymakers, and technologists seeking to implement the blockchain technologies effectively.

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引用次数: 0

Technology yields spoils: The impact of digitalization on innovation value appropriation 技术产生战利品：数字化对创新价值占有的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124012

Yao Dong , Yuhuan Xia , Xin Qi

Drawing on the Dynamic Capability View (DCV), we propose a research model to investigate how digitalization affects innovation value appropriation. Using a dataset comprising 291 listed companies within the new energy vehicles sector, our findings reveal that digitalization facilitates technical and economic value appropriation of innovation, with supply chain resilience mediating these relationships. Knowledge diversity amplifies the impact of digitalization on ambidextrous innovation value appropriation. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of digitalization on innovation value appropriation varies among companies with different ownership structures and sizes. The innovation and business environment of the cities in which these companies are located influence the effect of digitalization on innovation value appropriation. This study advances the understanding of how digitalization affects innovation value appropriation and extends the existing literature on innovation value appropriability within the context of open innovation paradigms.

引用次数: 0

Sailing through uncertainty: The impact of geopolitical risks on technology adoption in U.S. corporations—A corporate culture lens

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124025

Shizhen Bai , Yongbo Tan , Chunjia Han , Mu Yang , Weijia Fan , Brij B. Gupta , Varsha Arya

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, this study investigates how these risks reshape corporate technology adoption strategies in the U.S., focusing on the intersection of geopolitics, technology, and organizational dynamics. Drawing on the Resource-Based View (RBV) theory, we analyzed 32,940 earnings call transcripts from September 1, 2020, to June 30, 2023, using advanced text-based big data analytics, including Word2vec and Structured Topic Modeling (STM). The findings reveal that geopolitical risks significantly influence technology adoption decisions, driving advancements in critical domains such as electric mobility, artificial intelligence, digital currencies, intelligent shipping, and carbon abatement technologies. While these risks pose challenges, they also serve as catalysts for innovation and strategic realignment. Corporate culture emerges as a key moderating factor, with firms possessing a strong technology-oriented culture demonstrating greater adaptability in aligning technology adoption with external pressures. By integrating geopolitical risk considerations into the RBV framework, this research highlights the complex interplay between external uncertainties and internal capabilities, emphasizing the strategic value of an adaptive corporate culture in navigating geopolitical challenges and leveraging technological opportunities.

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the enablers of data-driven business models: A mixed-methods approach

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124036

Reza Dabestani , Sam Solaimani , Gazar Ajroemjan , Kitty Koelemeijer

One of the critical objectives underlying the digital transformation initiatives of numerous enterprises is the introduction of novel data-driven business models (DDBMs) aimed at facilitating the creation, delivery, and capture of value. While DDBMs has gained immense traction among scholars and practitioners, the implementation and scaling leave much to be desired. One widely argued reason is our poor understanding of the factors that enable DDBM's effective implementation. Using a mixed-methods approach, this study identifies a comprehensive set of enablers, explores the enablers' interdependencies, and discusses how the empirical findings are of value in DDBMs' implementation from theoretical and practical viewpoints.

引用次数: 0

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