Monetary policy and credit flows: A tale of two effective lower bounds

Abstract

This paper evaluates the quantitative effects of monetary policy on credit flows. Using Compustat data and a factor-augmented vector autoregression where monetary policy shocks are identified via an external instrument, we show that monetary policy promotes long-term credit creation while delaying or preventing long-term credit destruction. In parallel, it reduces short-term credit creation and destruction, effectively reallocating credit toward longer maturities. Focusing on two effective lower bound periods, we show that monetary policy prompted a reshuffling of credit toward financially constrained firms, notably small, young, and high-default-probability firms. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of monetary policy in steering credit toward financially constrained firms and stimulating future economic activity near the effective lower bound.