Examining the hidden effects of democracy and natural sources on ecological footprint in South Africa: Fourier NARDL approach

Abstract

Despite a significant body of literature examining the drivers of environmental degradation, non-traditional political and economic factors have not been thoroughly investigated. In this context, there remains a gap in the literature regarding the asymmetric effects of less-studied factors such as democracy and natural resources. The key research question addressed by this study is: How do democracy and natural resources, as political and economic factors, impact the ecological footprint in South Africa? To answer this question, this study investigates the potential hidden impacts of democracy and natural resources on the ecological footprint in South Africa for the period 1970–2021 using the Fourier Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FNARDL) model. This study thus positions itself as a pioneering work in examining the determinants of ecological pressure using the FNARDL method. While findings from the ARDL model indicate that these factors are statistically insignificant, the FNARDL model reveals that democracy and natural resources significantly reduce the ecological footprint under structural breaks. Furthermore, it has been found that economic growth, urbanization, and energy consumption positively impact the ecological footprint. These findings help inform policy by clarifying the complex links between politics, economics, and environmental sustainability in South Africa.