Predicted population declines driven by climate change can be mitigated with a new protected area in endemic tetrapods from Madagascar

Abstract

Protected areas represent a major tool for biodiversity conservation in the face of environmental change. However, species will need to shift their distribution to track their suitable climate, which calls the need to create new protected areas and take into account those changes. We modelled the suitable environment of 11 tetrapods (three reptiles, three amphibians, and five mammals) that dwell in the eastern forest corridor of Madagascar with an Ecological niche modelling approach adapted to small sample size and sample bias. We took into account the habitat (forest cover), two climate data sources (Worldclim and CHELSA), two scenarios of projected future climate change and three global circulation models, and quantified the change in suitable environments at the presence points and at the location of a candidate protected area in SE Madagascar (Beampingaratsy forest). We predict a decline in climate suitability for all species at their current locations. We propose to elevate the IUCN conservation status of five species to a threatened category, relying on criterion A3 (projected population decline). We also found that suitability will increase at the location of the candidate protected area for eight species. Granting a strong protection status in this region will ensure an ecological continuity between two National Parks, and contribute to help species track their suitable environments in the future.