Quantifying the supply system risk of the global copper industry chain under different shock scenarios

Abstract

Based on the complex networks of global copper trade and production, this paper proposed a method for quantifying the national supply risk by measuring changes in the entire supply system, and analyzed the key supply system risk points under different shock simulations. We found that countries with high supply systemic risk were mainly distributed in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, with countries such as Peru, Chile, and Mexico in the upstream and Canada in the downstream. High-risk countries in the upstream had the characteristics of supply systemic risk growth as the shock intensity increased, which was different from the characteristics of high-risk countries in the downstream. The countries with high trade loss risk were different from those with high production loss risk. To optimize the supply system risk of the global copper industry chain, we should pay attention to the key risk nodes of different links.