A neighborhood analysis of U.S homicide clearances in 50 cities: Examining race and disadvantage across neighborhood types

Abstract

America's homicide clearance rate has dropped to a new low, clearing only 52 % of homicides according to the 2020 Uniform Crime Report system. This is the lowest clearance rate on record. While homicide clearance rates receive considerable attention, community-based approaches are far more limited. In this research we examine neighborhood level homicide clearance rates using a large sample of census tracts (n = 15,557) with the goal of capturing the variation in homicide clearances across community characteristics and racial groups. We are particularly interested in understanding how race and structural features of communities may influence homicide clearances overall. Results reveal that higher economic disadvantages and the size of the Black population are associated with lower clearances in predominantly Black, mixed minority and integrated neighborhoods. Additionally, immigration concentration is associated with a lower rate of clearance in predominantly Black and integrated neighborhoods. Trajectory analysis reveals that predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods are also more likely to be characterized by high and rising numbers of unsolved homicides over the past decade.