A brief history of travel forecasting

IF 3.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Transportation Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI:10.1007/s11116-025-10609-6

Marco Nie

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This essay provides an introduction to the field of travel forecasting from a historical perspective. Drawing on the book by Boyce and Williams (Forecasting urban travel: past, present and future. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2015), I first recount the field’s three developmental phases, from inception to maturation. I then summarize significant innovations in model development, organized under four key themes: equilibrium, integration, behavioral realism and physical realism. This is followed by a general critique of the field that addresses several unresolved challenges, including issues of falsifiability, credulous assumptions, undue complexity, and politics.

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旅游预测简史

本文从历史的角度对旅游预测领域进行了介绍。根据博伊斯和威廉姆斯的书（预测城市旅行：过去，现在和未来）。Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2015)，我首先叙述了该领域从开始到成熟的三个发展阶段。然后，我总结了模型开发中的重大创新，组织在四个关键主题下：均衡、整合、行为现实主义和物理现实主义。接下来是对该领域的一般性批评，解决了几个尚未解决的挑战，包括可证伪性、轻信的假设、过度的复杂性和政治问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transportation 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

10.70

自引率

4.70%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： In our first issue, published in 1972, we explained that this Journal is intended to promote the free and vigorous exchange of ideas and experience among the worldwide community actively concerned with transportation policy, planning and practice. That continues to be our mission, with a clear focus on topics concerned with research and practice in transportation policy and planning, around the world. These four words, policy and planning, research and practice are our key words. While we have a particular focus on transportation policy analysis and travel behaviour in the context of ground transportation, we willingly consider all good quality papers that are highly relevant to transportation policy, planning and practice with a clear focus on innovation, on extending the international pool of knowledge and understanding. Our interest is not only with transportation policies - and systems and services – but also with their social, economic and environmental impacts, However, papers about the application of established procedures to, or the development of plans or policies for, specific locations are unlikely to prove acceptable unless they report experience which will be of real benefit those working elsewhere. Papers concerned with the engineering, safety and operational management of transportation systems are outside our scope.