Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI:10.1029/2025GL115657

H. Mutton, T. Andrews

{"title":"Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades","authors":"H. Mutton, T. Andrews","doi":"10.1029/2025GL115657","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean sea-ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Here we quantify the impact of this discrepancy on radiative feedback and simulated global temperature trends. We find that both satellite reconstructions of the Earth's energy budget and atmosphere-only GCM simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice trends support the hypothesis of a negative surface albedo feedback over the Southern Ocean. In contrast, declining sea-ice in AOGCMs gives rise to a positive feedback. We estimate that had the AOGCMs simulated the observed Southern Ocean sea-ice evolution their global feedback parameter would be less positive by 0.07–0.23 <math>\n <semantics>\n <mrow>\n <mtext>W</mtext>\n <mspace></mspace>\n <msup>\n <mtext>m</mtext>\n <mrow>\n <mo>−</mo>\n <mn>2</mn>\n </mrow>\n </msup>\n <mspace></mspace>\n <msup>\n <mi>K</mi>\n <mrow>\n <mo>−</mo>\n <mn>1</mn>\n </mrow>\n </msup>\n </mrow>\n <annotation> $\\text{W}\\hspace*{.5em}{\\text{m}}^{-2}\\hspace*{.5em}{\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation>\n </semantics></math> (which is 12%–29% of the total difference between AOGCM simulations and simulations forced with observed SST and sea-ice) and their global temperature trend over this 30 year period reduced by 0.01–0.06 K <math>\n <semantics>\n <mrow>\n <msup>\n <mtext>decade</mtext>\n <mrow>\n <mo>−</mo>\n <mn>1</mn>\n </mrow>\n </msup>\n </mrow>\n <annotation> ${\\text{decade}}^{-1}$</annotation>\n </semantics></math>.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL115657","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL115657","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean sea-ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Here we quantify the impact of this discrepancy on radiative feedback and simulated global temperature trends. We find that both satellite reconstructions of the Earth's energy budget and atmosphere-only GCM simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice trends support the hypothesis of a negative surface albedo feedback over the Southern Ocean. In contrast, declining sea-ice in AOGCMs gives rise to a positive feedback. We estimate that had the AOGCMs simulated the observed Southern Ocean sea-ice evolution their global feedback parameter would be less positive by 0.07–0.23 $W m^{- 2} K^{- 1}$ (which is 12%–29% of the total difference between AOGCM simulations and simulations forced with observed SST and sea-ice) and their global temperature trend over this 30 year period reduced by 0.01–0.06 K ${decade}^{- 1}$ .

Abstract Image

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

近几十年来与南大洋海冰演变缺陷相关的气候模式全球变暖趋势偏差

1985年至2014年间的观测显示，南大洋海冰在扩张。CMIP6大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）没有模拟这种现象。在这里，我们量化了这种差异对辐射反馈和模拟全球温度趋势的影响。我们发现地球能量收支的卫星重建和观测到的海表温度（SST）和海冰趋势强迫的大气GCM模拟都支持南大洋表面反照率负反馈的假设。相比之下，aogcm中海冰的减少产生了正反馈。我们估计，如果aogcm模拟观测到的南大洋海冰演变，其全球反馈参数将减小0.07-0.23 W m−2 K−1 $\text{W}\hspace*{.5em}{\text{m}}^{-2}\hspace*{. 5em}{\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$（占AOGCM模拟与观测海温和海冰强迫模拟之间总差值的12%-29%）及其在这30年期间的全球温度趋势减少了0.01-0.06 K 10年−1${\文本{10}}^ {1 }$ .

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.