Coastal zones vulnerability evaluation in the southern Baltic Sea: Shoreline dynamics and land use/land cover changes over five decades

Abstract

Over the past century, coastal zones have experienced significant population growth and rapid development, often conflicting with these environments' dynamic and sensitive nature. The present study investigated five decades (1972–2023) of shoreline dynamics and land-use/land-cover (LULC) transformations along three study sectors located on a 47 km stretch of the Southern Baltic coastline. The research employed eleven multispectral Landsat MSS/TM/OLI images within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to analyze coastline variations and LULC patterns. Results showed significant accretion in Sector I (Usedom), while Sectors II and III (Wolin) experienced marked erosion. Over the entire study period, 29.59 % (3.21 km), 39.90 % (4.51 km), and 67.54 % (9.45 km) of the shorelines in Sector-I, Sector-II, and Sector-III experienced erosion. The distance correlation showed that hydrometeorological variables associated with wind-wave dynamics, exerted a stronger influence on shoreline changes. The LULC change analysis highlighted a decline in forest cover (−846.86 ha) and increased built-up areas (+1137.86) across all sectors. These results enabled the identification of four coastal vulnerability zones—one in Usedom and three in Wolin—characterized by pronounced erosion, forest degradation, and urban expansion. These findings can inform coastal management strategies by identifying high-risk zones, guiding sustainable development practices, and prioritizing areas for conservation and intervention.