Mohammed Akram Zermane, Nadia Oulebsir, Mohamed Reda Bekli, Zahir Belhadi, Katia Becheker, Abdeldjalil Zaidi, Abdelghani Hadj Hammou
{"title":"Magnitude Prediction of Solar Cycle 26 Using a New Precursor Approach","authors":"Mohammed Akram Zermane, Nadia Oulebsir, Mohamed Reda Bekli, Zahir Belhadi, Katia Becheker, Abdeldjalil Zaidi, Abdelghani Hadj Hammou","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02459-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A long-term prediction approach for solar cycles is proposed by including the century-scale modulation in the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) and XSODA (Extended Solar Dynamo Amplitude) indices of Schatten and Pesnell, MSODA and MXSODA. Additionally, we also introduce a new technique, the minimal fluctuation method, to reduce temporal fluctuations. By combining this method with MSODA, we predict that Solar Cycle 26 will reach a maximum sunspot number of <span>\\(109.14\\pm 32.92\\)</span> in the year <span>\\(2035.3 \\pm 2.3\\)</span>. Using MXSODA, the most reliable indicator, the peak is expected to reach a maximum amplitude of <span>\\(160.70\\pm 47.83\\)</span> on the same date.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar Physics","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-025-02459-3","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A long-term prediction approach for solar cycles is proposed by including the century-scale modulation in the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) and XSODA (Extended Solar Dynamo Amplitude) indices of Schatten and Pesnell, MSODA and MXSODA. Additionally, we also introduce a new technique, the minimal fluctuation method, to reduce temporal fluctuations. By combining this method with MSODA, we predict that Solar Cycle 26 will reach a maximum sunspot number of \(109.14\pm 32.92\) in the year \(2035.3 \pm 2.3\). Using MXSODA, the most reliable indicator, the peak is expected to reach a maximum amplitude of \(160.70\pm 47.83\) on the same date.
在Schatten和Pesnell、MSODA和MXSODA的SODA （solar Dynamo Amplitude）指数和XSODA （Extended solar Dynamo Amplitude）指数中加入世纪尺度调制，提出了太阳周期的长期预测方法。此外，我们还引入了一种新的技术，即最小波动法，以减少时间波动。将此方法与MSODA相结合，我们预测第26太阳周期在\(2035.3 \pm 2.3\)年达到最大黑子数\(109.14\pm 32.92\)。使用最可靠的指标MXSODA，预计峰值将在同一天达到最大振幅\(160.70\pm 47.83\)。
期刊介绍：
Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.
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