Induced Traffic Volume Prediction of a New Highway Based on the ESE Gravity Model

Abstract

Induced traffic volume is an important indicator for evaluating the feasibility of traffic project construction and predicting traffic demand. However, among the many models used in engineering to predict induced traffic volume, the economic spillover effects of new projects are not considered. To enhance the rationality of induced traffic volume prediction and to refine the prediction model, this study takes into account the economic spillover effects based on an analysis of the factors influencing induced traffic volume. Based on models of accessibility and regional economic potential, an economic spillover effect gravity model is proposed that considers the impact of the economy on induced traffic volume. The prediction results are more sensitive to economic factors and can reflect the driving role of the economy in regional traffic.